The bigger the rise, the harder the fall.

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This month marks the longest period of time the U.S. economy has gone without a recession, just edging past the economic cycle that ended when the dot com bubble burst.

Why it matters: This milestone comes at one of the more pessimistic moments in the last decade as economists are warning that a significant slowdown in growth, and maybe a recession,is coming thanks to the impact of trade tensions and slumping growth in other economies across the globe.

Behind the numbers: The pace of growth has been significantly slower than its predecessors, making the length of the cycle the defining factor of this period.

  • “Signs of over-exuberance” have ended the past 3 economic cycles, Michael Pearce, an economist at Capital Economics, tells Axios. “The interesting thing about this expansion is that it’s been very slow and we’ve really not seen a big buildup of excesses.”

  • Inflation has also been notably muted in the face of a near-50-year low unemployment rate and strong job creation. And low interest rates that’s helped prop up the economy in the past decade may be even lower in coming months.

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