The Industrial engine has begun its decline! Central banks are trying to kill demand because they cannot fix supply.

I said it before – I say it again!

The US Industrial Sector has peaked.

We will now be running on the fumes of the Tech sector for few months. XLI will bounce – and everybody will believe that things are great.

But the Industrial engine has begun its decline! pic.twitter.com/f0wzbjjUYW

— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) September 17, 2026

Listen if you do not have a recession resistant job right now and your plan is simply to assume somehow it will not be you, I think you are making a serious mistake. Fuck keeping up with the Joneses. There is nothing impressive about looking wealthy while being financially… pic.twitter.com/Cg7kYBwLVT

— EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) September 19, 2026

The US economy is not officially in a recession, although warning signs are mounting.

Inflation persists, the job market is stagnant (or worse), and consumer confidence is in a downward spiral.

— Douglas Macgregor (@DougAMacgregor) September 19, 2026

We are in cost-push inflation.

Rising rates in this environment will hurt people badly.

This is stagflation.

Your fuel costs more.
Your food costs more.
Your electricity costs more.
Your freight costs more.

And now your EMI, mortgage and business borrowing costs rise too.

People are being crushed from both sides.

In demand-pull inflation, central banks hike rates to cool an economy that is running too hot.

But this is different.

Higher rates cannot produce oil.
They cannot create fertilizer.
They cannot fix damaged supply chains.
They cannot manufacture more food or energy.

So central banks are trying to kill demand because they cannot fix supply.

Think about what that actually means.

They have to make households poorer enough to consume less.

They have to make financing expensive enough to destroy marginal demand.

Prices stay high while growth slows.

And the consumer pays for both the original supply shock and the policy response to it.

This is not the comfortable inflation cycle markets became used to after 2008.

This is stagflation.

And if the supply shock keeps intensifying, higher rates don’t solve the problem.

They will inflict pain to the people.

We are in cost-push inflation.

Rising rates in this environment will hurt people badly.

This is stagflation.

Your fuel costs more.
Your food costs more.
Your electricity costs more.
Your freight costs more.

And now your EMI, mortgage and business borrowing costs rise too.…

— Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy (@Macrobysunil) September 19, 2026