by Chris Black
Think about it: in 1939, Poland controlled territories that historically belonged to Germany, inhabited by Germans, territories given to Poland after Germany’s defeat in WW1.
Poland started to persecute Germans in the respective territories (ethnic cleansing basically), and refused to negotiate a peaceful settlement with Germany, as it was promised military protection against Hitler by the UK and France in case SHTF.
See where this is going, right?
NATO is determined not to strike a deal with Russia. NATO would rather negotiate in bad faith, because it buys them time and helps them to stir up support for a broader war. It is exactly the strategy that Britain/America has used to start wars since WWI.
There are two ways to negotiate in bad faith. 1) Ask for everything you could possibly want, even if there’s no chance of getting it, then demand that the other side meet you halfway. When they refuse, say “It’s not fair. We tried to negotiate, and they wouldn’t work with us.”
2) Make reasonable demands. If they are not accepted, say “Our demands were so reasonable. The other side wouldn’t work with us.” If your demands are accepted, come right back and make more demands. If these are not accepted, whine until they are. This is what Israel did during the 1948 war, for example.
The problem right now is that Russia is not doing either of these strategies. Russia is trying to act in good faith. It is saying “Accept our reasonable, minimalist demands, or it’s war.” NATO, being full of evil, dishonorable people, does not interpret Russia’s position literally. It assumes that Russia must be doing bad-faith negotiating strategy #2, because that’s what NATO would do in Russia’s position.
Could it be that NATO is right, and that the Russians will just make more demands if their first demands are met? Theoretically yes. But we will never find out, because there is no way that NATO will agree to any deal that even remotely reflects the actual balance of power and both sides’ interests.
But perhaps I’m giving NATO too much credit. NATO knows that there is no reason to negotiate faithfully, because as long as NATO keeps doing strategy #1, they can act like everything bad that happens is Russia’s fault. This makes NATO stronger, as it can then use this to stir up its own people for a bigger, bloodier war.