Below is the “net change w/w” in the total outstanding bank credit for all commercial banks in the US. When the black line drops below 0, that means a decline in the amount of credit vs the previous week.
TOTBKCR is the most frequently updated bank credit timeseries, and has a 2 week reporting delay. Note: I ran TOTBKCR through a 4-point MA, since otherwise it is ridiculously choppy.
Reminder: bank credit is a decent-sized chunk of the US credit impulse. It is “private money printing.” The rest involves bonds, both corporate and governmental.
This supports Mish’s claim that inflation is in the rear view mirror.
Here’s the table from FRED on TOTBKCR. Short answer: “total credit, all commercial banks.” It does seem to be everything on the bank balance sheet.
My guess is, securitized loans aren’t included if they aren’t owned by banks, but I’m not 100% sure on that.
Some other series which includes securitized loans (but isn’t weekly):
- NONREVSL “Total Nonrevolving Credit Owned and Securitized, Outstanding”
- REVOLSL “Total Revolving Credit Owned and Securitized, Outstanding”
- TOTALSL “Total Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized, Outstanding”
- SLOAS “Student Loans Owned and Securitized, Outstanding”
- MVLOAS “Motor Vehicle Loans Owned and Securitized, Outstanding”
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