Trucking Volume Hits The Brakes, Consumer Demand Faltering, Subprime Auto Loans Blow Up… Why Worry? The Fed’s Got This!

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The trucking industry continues to decelerate into year-end at a time when it should be rocketing higher ahead of the holiday season. Old Dominion Freight Line reported 3Q19 earnings last Thursday and warned the domestic economy is slowing. The freight company reported revenue declines Y/Y for the quarter, which was the first drop since 2016.  The rare decline in revenue from Old Dominion is a sign that the domestic economy is faltering, and it’s likely being led lower by deteriorating consumer demand. This means the manufacturing recession has successfully transmitted weakness into the consumer segment of the economy, which accounts for 70% of GDP.


Santander Consumer USA, one of the largest subprime auto lenders and the largest securitizer of subprime auto loans…. It had $26.3 billion of subprime auto loans as of June 30 that it either owned and carried on its books or that it had packaged into subprime-auto-loan backed securities and sold to investors; in terms of the loans that it collects payments on, 14.5% of the borrowers were delinquent, according to S&P Global Ratings

I’m guessing there will be less sideways once the next benchmark revision is released next year. Until then, we have the data we have. And according to that data, wholesalers are running out of patience.


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