Warsh stare at a hike while Trump stare at him

Decision due 2:00 pm ET. Press talk 2:30 pm. First hike since 2023 if they pull the trigger.

Markets price about a 25 point move to 3.75% to 4.00%. Some boards show 90% to 92.5% odds.

Current target sit at 3.50% to 3.75%. Headline inflation still 3.4%. Core 2.4%. Diesel near $6 a gallon.

Brent back over $100. Energy up 16.3% in a year. CBO already flag the Iran war adding about 0.5% to early 2027 inflation.

Trump want a cut or a freeze. Markets want the hike. Chair four months on the job.

10 year yield already near a 19 year high into the meeting.

The war in the Gulf now sit inside the rate room.

Decision 2 p.m. Odds over 90%. First hike since 2023 if they do it.

Swaps about 94% for a quarter-point hike.

2:00 decision, 2:30 presser.