Friday's jobs report lands on a market holiday.
We are on the cusp of the largest stock to bond rotation in history.
As we see, when rates come down, stocks peak and bonds rally.
All indications are that the economy just fell off a cliff. Even Zerohedge figured it out. pic.twitter.com/ya40GRbiPV
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) April 5, 2023
Commercial Real Estate could be in for something worse than even the Great Financial Crisis warns Morgan Stanley pic.twitter.com/R9oQW83e6U
— Barchart (@Barchart) April 5, 2023
The office vacancy rate in downtown Toronto, Canada, has reached its highest point since 1995, per Bloomberg.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 5, 2023
We now see U.S. GDP falling by 1½% annualised in Q2 and Q3, respectively, before rebounding only slightly in the fourth quarter, with a 1% increase. This change in the economy will prompt a shift from the Fed, eventually. 2/5
— Pantheon Macro (@PantheonMacro) April 5, 2023
We see three 25bp rate cuts this year, in September, November and December, followed by 100bp next year. This will be enough to revive growth next year, but in the near term, we now think the economy faces a setback. 4/5
— Pantheon Macro (@PantheonMacro) April 5, 2023
THE MONTH OF APRIL HAS BARELY STARTED AND APPLE INSIDERS HAVE SOLD SHARES WORTH OVER $40 MILLION SO FAR $AAPL
INSIDERS THAT HAVE SOLD SHARES INCLUDE CEO TIM COOK , COO , SERNIOR VICE PRESIDENT , APPLE’S GENERAL COUNCEL
THIS IS TIM COOKS FIRST SELL IN ALMOST 2 YEARS
— GURGAVIN (@gurgavin) April 5, 2023
'Regional banks don't look as cheap when the price-to-book ratio is adjusted for unrealized losses.' t.co/TVDYvfMap2 via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/qJYL6vulTn
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) April 5, 2023
Factory Orders Unexpectedly Much Weaker Than Expected With Big Negative Revisions
Construction spending falls in February
‘We Are Going to See Parts of the Economy Break’: Recession Fears Move Back to Forefront of Markets
MW: Investors reconsider the risk that the U.S. economy is about to tip into a recession after data reveals the labor market is loosening up.
Bonds Catch a Bid as Recession Talks Heat Up Again: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street saw a renewed flight-to-safety bid, with stocks dropping and bonds rallying after softer economic data revived fears that a recession could be in store.
Chart of the Week – The “Obvious” Risks in Real Estate
Even with the contrarian aspect, I think it’s still hard to get excited on real estate in the immediate term with the rate shock on the one hand and weaker growth prospects ahead on the other hand. Finding “goldilocks” is going to be very hard indeed…
Bond market’s most deeply inverted gauge is pointing to ‘deep recession,’ expert says
Meanwhile in the United States …
Everything is fine 🔥🔥🔥
🔊… music pic.twitter.com/wmKuJYrkIZ
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) April 5, 2023