by Martin Armstrong
Back in 1967, the International Global Atmospheric Research Program was established, mainly to gather data for better short-range weather prediction, but included climate. The following year, this was the beginning of biased studies which suggested that a possibility of a collapse of the Antarctic ice sheets would raise sea levels catastrophically. The put forth the idea that a big enough rise in global temperatures would eventually melt the world’s glaciers. They then pointed to a retreat of mountain glaciers since the 19th century claiming this was very apparent in many regions. This trend, they argued with linear logic, would release enough water to raise the sea level a bit. The argued that starting during the 1960s, several glacier experts warned that part of the Antarctic ice sheet seemed unstable. If the huge mass slid into the ocean, which did not happen, the sea-level rise would wreak great harm, perhaps within the next century or two. They completely failed to point out that there had historically been cycles in climate and even the poles were not at the same location.
We find one of the early articles that predicted the average temperature would be 9 degrees hotter by now. This appears in Popular Mechanics back in January 1970. The analysis was flawed as always because they take whatever trend is in motion and project it out without end. They completely fail to comprehend that there is any cycle within anything.
All of these forecasts are indistinguishable from looking at the Dow Jones Industrials and observing it has risen 5% per year since 2009 and therefore, it will never correct once again. The analysis simply does not qualify as analysis by taking whatever trend is in motion and forecasting it will never end. That analysis was set in motion following 1967. Unfortunately, this crazy analysis will not reach its peak until 2032. Governments will continue to embrace it as an excuse to raise taxes.
by Martin Armstrong