Alert.Category 4 cyclone is going to strike Mozambique next week!

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Tropical Storm “Idai” formed in the Mozambique Channel on March 9, 2019 as the 10th named storm of the 2018/19 Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season. The cyclone is expected to reach Category 4 hurricane equivalent and make landfall over Mozambique…

Idai is definitely organizing fast, already is starting to clear out an eye.

Cyclone #Idai continues to strengthen as it moves south parallel to Madagascar, now packing winds of 70kt. JTWC expects intensification to 120kt before landfall in Mozambique, which would be the strongest landfall on record in that country.

Cyclone #Idai has developed an open pinhole eye. No recent MW passes unfortunately but structure is looking excellent on the IR. #cycloneIdai #Madagascar #Mozambique

The latest bulletin from NESDIS (@NOAASatellites) suggests that Cyclone #Idai has reached intense cyclone strength with maximum sustained winds of near 100 knots (115 mph). Please note that the position and intensity in this bulletin may vary from the 03:00 UTC JTWC warning.

Powerful Cyclone Idai, a Category 4 hurricane equivalent, will go down as one of only three major (Cat 3-5) cyclones to ever make landfall in Mozambique, Africa

@ForceThirteen

#CycloneIdai a Category 3 storm in the #Mozambique Channel. 40 reported killed in MZ and #Malawi in relation to the storm.
Video update:

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14 – 4:00 AM RET March 12 2019
CYCLONE TROPICAL IDAI (11-20182019)
=========================================================
West of Northwestern Madagascar
Southwest of Juan de Nova island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Idai (968 hPa) located at 18.0S 42.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
30 nm radius from the center, extending up to 45 nm in the northern semi-circle

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Storm Force Winds
====================
45 nm radius from the center, extending up to 50 nm in the southwestern quadrant and up to 60 nm in the northern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
===================
85 nm radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 nm radius from the center, extending up to 120 nm in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 18.8S 41.7E – 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 19.3S 40.6E – 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 19.9S 38.0E – 115 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 19.5S 35.8E – 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
=========================
The cycle of eye wall replacement has reduced the wind strength in the northern part of the cyclone as it shows the METOP-A micro-images of 1835z. This cycle continues and leads a cloud pattern with a poorly defined eye, where the Dvorak analysis allows now to estimate the winds of the order of 75 knots. In the absence of an ASCAT swath on the system, it is assumed that the wind structure is asymmetric with a more extensive but weaker northern component.

Idai maintain a still slow track to the southwest with the strengthening influence of a subtropical ridge located in the southwest. From Wednesday, the track should bend westward. The majority of the available models also suggest that this turn could continue on Thursday, giving a northwestward motion to idai at the moment of its impact on the Mozambican coasts. The timing and localization of the impact thus remain relatively uncertain. Later, most models offer a return to sea of the low level clockwise circulation that could intensify again.

On this track, the environmental conditions remain conducive for the system, which should continue to strengthen, especially Tuesday and Wednesday with good oceanic conditions, based on data from the psy4 ocean model of Mercator-ocean. However, evidence of a cycle of eye wall replacement leads to a significant weakening of Idai’s intensity over the next 12 hours. After the system tracks under the axis of an upper ridge and thus benefits from a good upper divergence, so its intensification will be able to resume during the night from Wednesday to Thursday. Idai should land at the intense tropical cyclone stage.

Idai should be a very dangerous storm at the time of its landing, which is still forecast on Friday on the Mozambican coastline between Beira and Quelimane approximately. The first storm surge estimations exceed 6m over the Zambeze’s delta and are close to 4 meters around Beira and Quelimane. To this, we must add a cyclonic swell already present on the Malagasy and African coasts which will continue to grow. Satellite wave measurements until 6 hours ago provided values of more than 7m (I.E. Maximum heights of nearly 12 meters ) near Idai. Waves of 12 meters are expected on the Mozambican coasts during landing, reaching maximum heights of 20 meters.

 

 

h/t Kek the Winged Hussar

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