All the key indicators are showing a tanking economy. Do not ignore these signs. Investors don’t have faith in America right now and who can blame them.
A key part of the Treasury yields inverted once again on Friday, stoking fears that a recession could be in the cards, after jobs data caused short-term rates to jump.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up 10 basis points at 2.426%, and the rate on the 2-year U.S. government bond surged 15 basis points higher to 2.434%.
Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.
Other parts of the yield curve also remained inverted. The yield on the 5-year Treasury surged 14 basis points to 2.564%, while the rate on the 30-year Treasury bond had jumped 7 basis points to 2.516%. 5-year and 30-year yields inverted for the first time since 2006 on Monday.
www.cnbc.com/2022/04/01/us-bonds-treasury-yields-invert-stoking-recession-fears.html
And the 2s10s curve inverts t.co/U4jX1JXPJK pic.twitter.com/I0bwf4qJqC
— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) April 1, 2022
We’re nearing a recession, if this always-accurate indicator is right again | CNN Business
New York (CNN Business)The bond market just flashed a warning sign that has correctly predicted almost every recession over the past 60 years: an inversion of the US Treasury note yield curve.
An inverted yield curve is often seen as a signal that investors are more nervous about the immediate future than the longer term, spurring interest rates on short-term bonds to move higher than those paid on long-term bonds.
The curve inverted briefly Tuesday for the first time since September 2019. That shouldn’t be particularly surprising, given how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and its economic ramifications — continue to weigh heavily on the global economy.
Treasury notes are essentially a loan to the US government and are generally seen as a safe bet for investors since there is little risk the loan won’t be paid back.
Curve inverting because Powell will be all-systems-go hiking rates because he thinks the lagging labor market is exceptionally strong
— GreekFire23 (@GreekFire23) April 1, 2022
$AAPL, $QCOM are taken off J.P. Morgan's Analyst Focus List on consumer spending worries.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 1, 2022
March nonfarm payrolls slighter weaker than consensus: +431k vs. +490k est. & +750k in prior month (rev up from +678k) pic.twitter.com/w84FhtdtvU
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) April 1, 2022
Yield curve schmield curve.
Here's a stat for you:
100% of the time when the unemployment rate drops below to 3.7%. a recession ensues.
Only question is the when not the if. pic.twitter.com/2rEump8S2J— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) April 1, 2022
h/t Fair Acres