Vice Chair Richard Clarida said conditions for an interest rate hike could be met in late 2022, setting the stage for a move in early 2023. He and three other Fed members also signalled a move to taper bond buying later this year or early next depending on how the labour market fared in the next few months. “It is reflective of a hawkish drift among the committee about the risks of more persistent inflation, and what that might mean for achieving the Fed’s new inflation framework,” said Brian Daingerfield, an analyst at NatWest Markets.
“This is all to say that the stakes for Friday’s payrolls, and subsequent payrolls, are sky high.” Predicting the jobs report with any confidence remains particularly tricky as the spread of the Delta variant and labour bottlenecks roil the market.
Thus, while the median forecast for payrolls is 870,000 the range of estimates stretches from 350,000 to 1.6 million. Adding to the murkiness were Wednesday’s mixed data where a surprisingly weak ADP report on private hiring clashed with the strongest ever reading for U.S. services.
Low estimate is 350K, so not everyone. Well below 800K is going to make people worry next week though, after last weeks GDP miss………
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