First wave: Job losses
Second wave: Bankruptcies
Note: This is initial jobless claims before 30 million people lost their jobs. pic.twitter.com/tYJMdL8709
— Remi Tetot (@RemiGMI) May 3, 2020
Doing some quick checking on valuations (using #Fridays close) versus S&P's 4/30/20 estimates. Two conclusions:
1) Estimates have not been revised down nearly enough
2) Market remains exceptionally overvalued considering what's coming on the data front. pic.twitter.com/vTEoeNgZw6— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) May 3, 2020
$VIX futures forward curve went back into a strong backwardation configuration last week. Also spot $VIX is poised explosively right next to the front month futures. This has preceeded strong pivots both higher and lower for stocks this year. That chart could materialize. t.co/zvgUEbAySs pic.twitter.com/DMWXMY8bgc
— Jon Tait Ⓥ (@jontait) May 2, 2020
We were all waiting for Buffett to buy preferred stock in the airlines or Boeing as he did in some banks in ‘08. He didn’t. Does it mean he thinks this crisis is far worse than the Great Recession and not easily reversible? My bet is absolutely yes.
— Scott Wapner (@ScottWapnerCNBC) May 3, 2020
the cycle was turning way before covid-19 – the virus crisis was a shock during the window of vulnerability period that has resulted in 2q depression pic.twitter.com/fQvakL5Gl5
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) May 3, 2020