If you live in a place that experienced rapid home price appreciation in the last 2 years, then a lateral move to a new home not only means losing a low interest rate loan in favor of a much higher interest rate loan, it also means losing the effective cap on your property taxes
— NRI Inc (@NewRiverInvest) June 24, 2022
Existing home sales gross transaction value was ~$2,600 Billion SAAR march 2021 and
march 2022. my estimate is ~15-20% of that translates to an "income", so ~4-500B SAAR in inputs to GDP. I think a -10% decline in txns is a decent base case w/ an adverse scenario closer to -20%— NRI Inc (@NewRiverInvest) June 24, 2022
the number is not that big, it's not that the number itself is scary. The thing about it is that is is incredibly effective at cooling down the economy because every geography is affected and affected at the same time. its the closest you get to reverse-stimmy in practice
— NRI Inc (@NewRiverInvest) June 24, 2022
mortgage originations (measured in $ of UPB) could really easily decline by 60% vs 2021. It doesn't take a major shock to get there. there's a lot of people employed in processing that paperwork. and fine its a boom-bust industry but it still hurts peoplet.co/J6K574hC7M
— NRI Inc (@NewRiverInvest) June 24, 2022