Ahead of today’s payrolls report, we warned that there is the possibility for a lot more “market whiplash” because as Goldman explicitly warned, there is the risk for an outlier strong report in January due to massive seasonal adjustments…
… which when coupled with historical revisions to both the Household and Establishment surveys, could lead to a massive beat. That’s precisely what happened when moments ago the BLS reported that instead of the 188K expected number, in January the US created a laughably goalseeked 517K jobs (at a time when mass layoff news hit every 45 minutes), up twice from last month’s upward revised 260K and the highest since July 2022!
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