Are We in a Recession Already?

via Charles Hugh Smith  The value of declaring the entire nation in or out of recession is limited. Recessions are typically only visible to statisticians long after the fact, but they are often visible in real time on the ground: business volume …

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Macron Heralds The End Of The Union

by Raúl Ilargi Meijer Paul Almasy Paris 1950  The concept of the EU might have worked, but still only might have, if a neverending economic boom could have been manufactured to guide it on its way. But there was never going to …

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Change Happens Fast

via northmantrader: NFP missed this morning and futures initially seemed positive on the news. Why? Because it gives excuses for the Fed to slow down their 2019 rate hike schedule. Still running negative real rates 10 years following the financial crisis …

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Employment, NYSE margin debt

by WARREN MOSLER Employment growth had been decelerating with the collapse in oil capex in Dec. 2014, but had started to accelerate with the initial impact of the year-end tax cuts, which now look to be fading: Highlights Sustainable non-inflationary …

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Fed comments, Trump watching stocks

by WARREN MOSLER A falling stock market will get the Fed’s attention and trigger real economic weakness and aggressive rate cuts. But those rate cuts remove interest income from the macro economy, which doesn’t recover until after net deficit spending …

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China-US scenarios

China-US scenarios: its obvious really but still a helpful 2*2 summary also of the varying scenarios that folks are laying out. @FitchRatings by way of @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/G0mipstEe3 — Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) December 7, 2018

Recession ahead?

Average weekly *hours YoY vs. Retail Sales YoY pic.twitter.com/AIU2Glxucr — Teddy Vallee (@TeddyVallee) December 7, 2018 ECRI U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth edged down to -4.1%, a 144-week low. #economy https://t.co/oVlvE3ZV3P pic.twitter.com/uuNP3UBxS4 — Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) (@businesscycle) December …

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Credit spreads blowing out again, excess liquidity stays ugly into 2h19

credit spreads blowing out again pic.twitter.com/cz97yAUrKb — Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) December 7, 2018 https://twitter.com/TeddyVallee/status/1071082524418433027 pic.twitter.com/mpIa0ODpTV — Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) December 7, 2018 remember: when stocks get ahead of credit – that is when stocks puke pic.twitter.com/hVM8mdhPyP — Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) December 7, 2018 …

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Trend Carefully

by Dana Lyons The numerous important trendline tests currently underway across the financial markets suggest this is a key juncture. Volatility in global equity markets has kicked back into hyper-drive this week with an average daily true range in the S&P …

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JOURNALISTS WONDER WHY NOBODY BELIEVES THEM NOW?

by Mark Tapscott Journalists lauded former Attorney General Jeff Sessions for recusing himself from all matters involving the investigation of allegations of collusion between 2016 Trump campaign aides and Russian interests in order to avoid even the appearance of conflicts of …

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All organizations make mistakes, but when the mistakes all go in the same direction, it does tend to make people a tiny bit suspicious that there could possibly be an agenda at work.

BUT OF COURSE: Snopes, Fact-Checker For Facebook And Google, Botches Fact Check. The meme showed a picture of President Donald Trump with Republican lawmakers and members of his administration following the House’s vote to repeal Obamacare in 2017. Thirty-three people in …

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THERE’S DEFINITELY GASLIGHTING GOING ON

● Shot: Andrea Mitchell Blames Trump ‘Gaslighting,’ ‘Unfairness of Media’ for Hillary’s Loss. —NewsBusters, today. ●  Chaser: ● Hangover: Pathetic MSNBC Runs Promo of Hillary Telling Andrea Mitchell She’s ‘My Kind of Woman’; ‘Love You!’ —NewsBusters, September 15, 2016.   h/t ED