The chart that predicts recessions

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A chart called the “yield curve” has predicted every US recession over the last 50 years. Now it might be predicting another one. Economic experts are starting to warn that a US recession is becoming more likely because of something called the “yield curve.” So what’s the yield curve? What does it show? And why … Read more

HK banks now provisioning only 1.7% of their revenues for loan losses!

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HK banks now provisioning only 1.7% of their revenues for loan losses! That’s close to a record low.Even below levels prior to the Asian Crisis! Are HK banks accurately depicting the potential for credit losses? Their historical average is about 12% of revenues. pic.twitter.com/kC8NtlZwjx — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) September 3, 2019 Otavio is the … Read more

Keeps getting worse. Another contrarian indicator at its highest level in 40 years!

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via Otavio (Tavi) Costa: Consumer confidence-to-sentiment ratio at a cyclical high? Happened prior to every recession. Now spiking after sentiment had its worst monthly drop in 7 years. Stocks never looked so toppy. Oil E&Ps now below GFC levels! Not the only problem: Industrials, financials, health care, materials, energy. All peaked in 2018. Broad leadership … Read more

Scary chart from BCA: Chinese households are now more leveraged than US households.

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via Jimmy Su: Consensus thinks that the China consumption story is driven by the “rising middle class” but as always the actual reason is much more complicated. Also, BCA looks at the ratio relative to household income instead of GDP because the latter includes non-consumer related line items (I.e. govt spending, investment, net exports). Makes … Read more

If history repeats itself, we are already in a bear market with a US recession in 2020

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If history repeats itself, we are already in a #bearmarket with a US #recession in 2020 and SPX @3200-3300 in 2024. More in my article here: https://t.co/bwwqEQzxZB @PictetAM pic.twitter.com/EJc2GLzN5H — Luca Paolini (@luca_paolini) September 5, 2019 Global #manufacturing is contracting, but can the service sector prevent a more serious downturn? https://t.co/o2uVsr1pj5 @darioperkins pic.twitter.com/9tKTCcd5Xn — GlobalData.TSLombard … Read more

Retail giant Target demands that suppliers absorb tariff costs to shield consumers

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Target tells suppliers it “will not accept any new cost increases related to tariffs on goods imported from China.” In a memo, the retailer also says it expects suppliers to “develop the appropriate contingency plans so that we don’t have to pass price increases along to our guests.” https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/05/target-demands-that-suppliers-absorb-tariff-costs-to-shield-consumers.html

WeWork parent weighs slashing its valuation roughly in half to around $20 billion amid IPO skepticism, say people familiar with the matter

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WeWork parent weighs slashing its valuation roughly in half to around $20 billion amid IPO skepticism, say people familiar with the matter This is a developing story…. https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-parent-weighs-slashing-its-valuation-roughly-in-half-11567689174?mod=BNM&mod=breakingnews

Another Weird Brexit Turn: Tories Vote To Support No-Deal Bill In House Of Lords

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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, A big filibuster was in progress then suddenly it vanished. Tories voted for the Benn bill blocking No Deal. Sorting Out the Truly Weird Remainers are bragging tonight that the Filibuster is broken. Guess who broke it. Via Eurointelligence The Conservatives in the House of Lords abandoned their filibuster in … Read more

Consumers Have Reached Their Tipping Point Marking Impending Recession

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by Mac Slavo of SHTFplan American consumers’ sentiment has officially reached their tipping point.  It’s time to brace for the impending recession. Unfortunately, the news is dire. Consumer sentiment results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers have crashed. The Consumer Sentiment Index posted its largest monthly decline in August 2019 (-8.6 points) since December 2012 (-9.8 … Read more

San Francisco Just Declared the NRA a TERRORIST Organization.Here’s How This Could Affect the Rest of Us

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by Daisy Luther Unbelievably, the San Francisco Board of Supervisors has passed a resolution designating the NRA a terrorist organization. In a year of mindboggling legislation against law-abiding gun owners, this truly ices the tyrannical cake. And ironically, they cited the Declaration of Independence to do it. What is this resolution? Let’s take a closer look WHEREAS, The United … Read more

Chicago mayor tells Ted Cruz to “keep our name out of your mouth” about gun control

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by DCG Bossy Chiraq Mayor Lori Lightfoot Liberals sure do love telling other people what they can and cannot speak of. From Yahoo (via HuffPo, hence the bias): Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot issued a blistering response to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) after he attempted to use the city as an example for why “gun control doesn’t work.” Cruz … Read more

Is your diet drink killing you? Drinks firms insist they’re safe, but now a major study says just two glasses a day can lead to an early death

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Products saying ‘sugar-free’ or reduced sugar will contain artificial sweeteners Study involving 450,000 said consuming these higher your risk of dying young They can ‘over-stimulate our sugar receptors’ and warp our palates So we no longer enjoy eating foods that aren’t so sweet and have cravings They are in thousands of products we slip into … Read more

Fail to deliver a ‘clean-break’ from EU & we’ll make sure you’re finished, Brexit Party warns BoJo

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The chair of the Brexit Party has threatened Boris Johnson that if he fails to deliver a ‘no-deal’ exit from the EU, his party will make sure that his time as UK prime minister will be even shorter than predecessor Theresa May’s. Richard Tice, who also represents the Brexit Party in Strasbourg as an MEP, … Read more