America’s Socialist Revolution has officially begun

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by Simon Black On October 31, 1517, an obscure German theology professor put the finishing touches on a paper he had written about the current state of the Catholic Church, and sent it off to Archbishop Albert of Brandenberg for review. The professor’s letter was polite and professional, with a formal tone that one might find … Read more

WTO warns of global trade slowdown as indicator hits nine-year low

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via Reuters: A quarterly leading indicator of world merchandise trade slumped to its lowest reading in nine years on Tuesday, which should put policymakers on guard for a sharper slowdown if trade tensions continue, the World Trade Organization said on Tuesday. The WTO’s quarterly outlook indicator, a composite of seven drivers of trade, showed a reading … Read more

Technically Speaking: You Carry An Umbrella In Case It Rains

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by Lance Roberts With the markets closed yesterday, it gives us a chance to review the short, intermediate, and long-term signals the markets are currently sending. Brett Arends recently wrote an excellent piece for MarketWatch with respect to investors feeling like they “missed out,” on the recent rally. To wit: “Sure, if you’d bought and held you’d have … Read more

The Rising Political Violence

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by Martin Armstrong   The Make America Great Again was actually a slogan used by Ronald Reagan who became one of the more popular presidents in postwar history. A Tennessee man is in jail after being accused of pulling a gun on a Sam’s Club customer Saturday 16th of February because he was wearing one of these hats. … Read more

Europe Slowing Into Recession

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The clip above features a few highlights from “The Macro Show” with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Every weekday morning at 9:00am ET our non-consensus macro team distills the latest global market and economic developments and how to position yourself accordingly. We analyze anything and everything under the sun that could affect your portfolio including current … Read more

Buying tobacco stocks 30 years ago would beat buying Apple at the same time by 31.5%

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by missedthecue   With $100,000 investments performed on the same date. Dividends not reinvested. Math below. Phillip Morris 4,045 shares at a cost of $24.72 per share on a $100,000 investment. Stock split, 4 for 1. 10/10/1989. You now have 16,180 shares. Stock split 3 for 1. 4/10/1997. You now have 48,450 shares. MO pays out $50.29 … Read more

Dynamic Pricing

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by Dave ack in 2000, Amazon experimented with an embryonic “dynamic pricing” project that charged people different amounts for a DVD, based on who knows what – zipcode, shopping habits, etc.  Consumers spotted this, got annoyed, and so Amazon backed down and allegedly issued refunds to all their customers who were overcharged. There are lots … Read more

CNBC: A big change in accounting will put $3 trillion in liabilities on corporate balance sheets

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via CNBC: A big change in lease accounting rules effective Jan. 1 requires companies to record operating leases on their balance sheets. Operating leases include everything a company rents to run its business, from office space, equipment, factories to planes and cars. The accounting change will result in an increase in company leverage, a key … Read more

What ZIRP is doing to the world

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What ZIRP is doing to the world #unintendedconsequences cc: @neelkashkari @marydalyecon @EricRosengren @RobSKaplan @RaphaelBostic @DiMartinoBooth 👉https://t.co/wtmXQUGI8x pic.twitter.com/jn18owB3sx — M/1_LP (@MI_Investments) February 19, 2019 #ZIRP👉https://t.co/T2J6VqHNhP pic.twitter.com/HfyWiINLAK — M/1_LP (@MI_Investments) February 19, 2019   pic.twitter.com/8EycYljoqD — M/1_LP (@MI_Investments) February 19, 2019

$21 Trillion: “Missing Money”

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by Dave   I’ve been going over and over in my head what “missing money” means.  Let’s review. Dr. Mark Skidmore did an analysis of the DoD and HUD budgets from 1998-2015.  He and his students found that there were $21 trillion dollars in undocumentable adjustments, for a budget that started out at $271 billion … Read more

The risky ‘leveraged loan’ market just sunk to a whole new low

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via businessinsider: 85% of all leveraged loans — one of the most-risky types of corporate debt — are now “covenant-lite.” That means they lack traditional requirements for companies to maintain certain financial benchmarks that protect the investors who pay for them. Leveraged loan quality is thus at a record low. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney … Read more

China’s Central Bank is sitting on a massively-leveraged financial system with huge property exposure. Who should the head of the PBoC NOT be talking to?

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https://twitter.com/M_PaulMcNamara/status/1097845860325646337 Yep – here's one caught my eye this morning as I was going through the usual updates… spurious, or about to get furious? pic.twitter.com/QbCZyHwByW — Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) February 18, 2019 China satellite manufacturing index YoY change now as low as it was prior the 2015 mini-devaluation. The Chinese economy finally hit the Great … Read more

Global synchronized slowdown – Soybeans and Wheat both calling BS on any US-China trade deal, expecting nothing substantive.

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Industrial production is now negative in Japan, EU, US and Mexico — The Long View (@HayekAndKeynes) February 18, 2019 https://twitter.com/GlobalProTrader/status/1097873854427553792 A quick read on economic deceleration–> pic.twitter.com/mzxHfsv5Je — Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) February 19, 2019 Case freight YoY pic.twitter.com/jSGiYSte7o — Teddy Vallee (@TeddyVallee) February 18, 2019 “Surveys show increased credit card debt and lower savings in 2019” … Read more

Trump Targeting Deep State Business Interests

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M14NlOvpE0w El Chappo just recently at a sentence hearing started naming some names of very prominent politicians that were on the take and that he had personally paid them off millions of dollars in bribes. He named Mafia Princess Poligrip Pelosi, Shiff, and others. All of these Deep State criminal Politicians are in the Cartels … Read more

COLD WAR II: With or without trade war deal, disputes between China and US set to intensify, says Beijing commentator.

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via scmp:   As part of China’s reform and opening up initiative, the state had generally retreated from the market and economy in the period from 1978 to 2008, But since then, the state has made a comeback and altered the direction of China’s economic underpinnings. China’s political and economic elites observed the global financial crisis … Read more