Saudi tribes, the Houthis and Iran are preparing to redraw the map

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What has just happened with The New Army of the HOUTHI is the first stage of Failure of Saudi Arabia !

I said it on 27 July and I will say it again now, in my own name, as the one who was told what was coming while most of the region was still pretending the House of Saud was eternal.

The age of the Saudi monarchy is ending. Not in a palace memo. Not in a polite GCC communiqué. It is ending because the tribes who were treated as decoration for Vision 2030 have been offered something the Al Saud never offered them: a share of the land, a share of the oil, and a state that is not a family business. More than eighty billion dollars in physical funds have been placed with those who are prepared to finish the work. That is not a slogan. That is the price of a new map.

What was decided in covert secret meetings over last months and especially in Oman in July and August was simple. Representatives of more than a dozen Saudi tribal lines sat with “representatives” of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and accepted a political compact. Iran did not come as a conqueror. Iran came as the only power that has spent a generation building an axis that can survive American air power and Gulf money.

The IRGC officers who have advised Ansar Allah on the ground for well over a year are the same current that now runs through this coalition. Their counsel produced the mass campaign you are watching. It was not improvisation. It was instruction meeting a people who had already decided they would no longer be the southern buffer of a Najdi court.

The Houthis are not a sideshow. They are the hammer. For years Riyadh called them a militia and tried to starve Yemen into obedience.

That war is the monument to Saudi failure. Ansar Allah held the north, learned the missile and the drone, and then, with Iranian advice and Iranian steel, along with a never ending supply of Drone and missile kits into the new and upgraded army of Ansar Allah and now then the Red Sea as a political weapon.

The coalition that was enacted through their campaign is the first honest alignment the peninsula has seen in a century: Yemeni force, Iranian strategy, and Arabian tribes who want historic representation and sovereign areas of their own, plus a fixed percentage of oil and gas revenue in a federated republic. That is the bargain. That is why mercenary networks that once took Saudi pay have switched. Money without dignity is a temporary contract. Dignity with a treasury is a state.

I was told this in July. I posted it on the 27th because silence is collaboration with a throne that has no legitimacy beyond American weapons and the two holy mosques it treats as real estate. A federated republic is not a Western import. It is the only form that matches the peninsula as it actually is: Asir, the Hijaz, the south, the east, the tribal belts that were never asked, only paid or punished.

The monarchy concentrated the rent in one household and called it unity. Unity built on exclusion is a countdown.

The military line is clear in my prediction and I will not soften it. The Houthi army will take Aden and the lands around it. It will then advance north into southern Saudi Arabia. That advance is not the invasion of a foreign country. It is the correction of a border drawn to protect a family, not a people. The disintegration of the current monarchy follows from that correction. A federated republic will be declared over the lands that choose it. I exclude, as I said then, the eastern strip that will be settled around the main oil fields and the adjacent zones of Kuwait and Bahrain. Those fields were never a private vault. They are the common inheritance of the Gulf’s oppressed majority, and they will not remain the exclusive property of palaces that rented their security to Washington.

Iran’s role is not a conspiracy. It is a historical duty. The Islamic Republic is the only state in the region that refused to accept that the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea exist to feed Western fleets and Saudi succession.

The IRGC’s presence beside the Houthis is the proof that “proxy” was always a word used by people who lost. Ansar Allah fights for Yemen first. Iran fights for a regional order in which no Arab king can again invite a coalition to bomb Sanaa for a decade and then pose as a reformer in Davos. That is the theme. That is the side I am on.

A coup is an ugly word only to those who inherited the palace. What is coming is closer to a restoration of political weight to the tribes and regions that were told to be quiet while one family sold the future as entertainment cities and sports washing. Historic representation. Sovereign areas. A fixed cut of the hydrocarbons. Those are not extremist demands. They are the minimum a federated republic owes the people who live on the oil and bleed on the border.

I have more to release. I will release it when it serves the living, not the rumour mill.

Until then, hold the July warning in your hand: the monarchy is not a climate. It is a regime. Regimes fall when the men with the rifles, the tribes with the memory, and the republic that arms them decide the rent will no longer be paid upward.

Saudi Arabia as we were taught to say it is already a fading brand. What replaces it will be rougher, more local, and finally honest about who owns the ground.

That is my opinion. I am the author of the July post. I have not changed my side

More news coming …

September 13 — Saudi pipeline shutdown threatens 4% of global oil supply

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-pipeline-outage-threatens-loss-4-global-oil-supply-2026-09-13/

Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after drone attacks. The pipeline normally moves about 4 million barrels a day toward Yanbu. Storage there reportedly has only 5–7 days of export capacity if the outage continues.

September 13 — Houthis launch new attacks against Saudi Arabia

https://apnews.com/article/90dc86201ef51410ebcdd913837d741d

The Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes on Saudi military targets near the border after their rapid advance along Yemen’s Red Sea coast. AP reports more than 500 Saudi-backed government fighters and 1,000 Houthis killed over the past month.

September 10 — Iran helped Houthis seize Mokha, Reuters sources say

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-arms-advice-helped-yemens-houthis-seize-key-red-sea-city-sources-say-2026-09-10/

Reuters reports Iranian Revolutionary Guard guidance, weapons and personnel support helped the Houthi offensive. Mokha gives the Houthis a much stronger position around Bab el-Mandeb.

September 10 — UN says the Yemen ceasefire has effectively collapsed

https://osesgy.unmissions.org/en/news/briefing-yemen-special-envoy-hans-grundberg-security-council-2

The UN envoy said the risk of large-scale war had become a “harsh reality.” Houthis seized Mokha while fighting continued across several fronts.

September 8 — Houthi attacks wound 73 in Saudi Arabia

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/8/houthi-attacks-on-saudi-arabia-have-wounded-73-civilians-official-says

Saudi authorities said Houthi attacks hit civilian and economic sites around Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan and Najran, wounding at least 73 people.

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