The market meltdown
by Steve John Exter’s Inverted Pyramid and the frenzy to take on risk when the wealth effect is strong and flee risk during uncertain times. When the herd changes direction, Katy bar the door!
Month: August 2019
Housing Bubble 2 in San Francisco Bay Area & Silicon Valley Pops Despite Startup Millionaires & Low Mortgage Rates
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, http://www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter House prices dropped again – and ironically the most in San Francisco and Silicon Valley. In the San Francisco Bay Area overall, house prices dropped again in July compared to July last year. They dropped in eight of the nine counties on a year-over-year basis: Silicon Valley (Santa Clara and San … Read more
Luxury Market Chaos: The Global Mansion Bust Has Begun
via Zerohedge: Global real estate consultancy firm Knight Frank LLP has warned that the global synchronized decline in growth coupled with an escalating trade war has heavily weighed on luxury home prices in London, New York, and Hong Kong. According to Knight Frank’s quarterly index of luxury homes across 46 major cities, prices expanded at an anemic … Read more
Gold Nears Record Highs In Euros as Deutsche Falls To New Record Low Showing Bank Contagion Risk
by GoldCore 16, August * Gold has consolidated on recent gains this week and has crept higher in all major currencies (see LBMA prices below) and is nearing all time record nominal highs in euros * Deutsche bank’s new record low at €5.80 underscores German and European banking contagion risk * FTSE 100 opens slightly … Read more
Corporate debt: $10 trillion, 47% of GDP
As of the end of the first quarter of 2019, nonfinancial corporate debt was nearly $10 trillion, which is almost 47% of GDP, the highest it has been since data has been available. … The figure above shows total corporate bond and syndicated loan issuance since 2014. Total debt issuance via these two types of … Read more
Mueller scared to Death During Confrontation With Matt Gaetz Over Christopher Steele
The FBI lied to protect Hillary and not only allowed her to destroy evidence, but agreed to help her destroy evidence. Add to that, the whistle blowers gave the evidence to the FBI against Hillary on three separate occasions and it was “lost” all three times. And to think, there are still people who think … Read more
Asians in San Francisco Stocking up on Guns to combat Gang Violence
Members of the Chinese community in San Francisco are reportedly promoting gun ownership as fears of crimes targeting Chinese locals escalate. In recent months, local Chinese news media reported a number of horrifying crimes, such as the kidnapping and rape of a 74-year-old woman, as well as the beating and robbery of the 56-year-old chairman of the … Read more
What You Are Witnessing Is The Destruction Of The [CB] Economy
Trump is pushing the gold price up, everytime the market dips a little the gold price moves up. The patriots are doing this slowly. Trump is pushing the Fed to cut rates to 0 and start stimulus, this will put the Fed in a position where they do not control the economy.
Are Stocks About to Crash? Three Charts That Suggest It’s Possible
by The Phoenix Things are worsening quickly now. The S&P 500 has failed to recover its 50-day moving average (red line). Even worse, the 13-day moving average (blue line) has staged a bearish cross with the 50-day moving average, signaling DOWNWARDS momentum is building. This suggests a move to the 200-day moving average (green line) at … Read more
ABC ‘KIMMEL’ Fined $395K by FCC for Emergency Alert Misuse
A Jimmy Kimmel Live! bit making fun of President Donald Trump is going to cost ABC $395,000, as the FCC is cracking down on use of the emergency alert tone in entertainment. The network agreed to pay a fine to the agency after late-night host Jimmy Kimmel in October used a simulated tone three times during a … Read more
Why The Dollar Rules The World, And Why Its Reign Could End
Long live King Dollar? by Antony Mueller via Mises President Donald Trump wants a lower US dollar. He complains about the over-valuation of the American currency. Yet, is he right to accuse other countries of a “currency manipulation”? Is the position of the US dollar in the international monetary arena not a manipulation in its own … Read more
Don’t Read This If You Think Stocks Are About to Explode Higher
by The Phoenix Things are worsening quickly now. The S&P 500 has failed to recover its 50-day moving average (red line). Even worse, the 13-day moving average (blue line) has staged a bearish cross with the 50-day moving average, signaling DOWNWARDS momentum is building. This suggests a move to the 200-day moving average (green line) at … Read more
Advertisers Blacklist Hard News, Including Trump, Fearing Backlash
Like many advertisers, Fidelity Investments wants to avoid advertising online near controversial content. The Boston-based financial-services company has a lengthy blacklist of words it considers off-limits. If one of those words is in an article’s headline, Fidelity won’t place an ad there. Its list earlier this year, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, contained more … Read more
Crying on the job? 8 in 10 workers shedding tears
8 in 10 workers admit to crying at work, with almost half of those saying bosses or colleagues had driven them to tears. About 14% of workers say they cry at least once a week, and sometimes every day. Crying at work can be a sign that something is wrong, such as workplace bullying, and … Read more
LATE-STAGE SOCIALISM: A nation is vanishing: Has Venezuela lost almost 20 percent of its population?
via miamiherald: Mark Green, administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), said on Feb. 16, 2019, that getting humanitarian aid to Venezuela is an effort not just of the United States, but of the whole region. A staggering 15 to 19 percent of Venezuela’s total population has left the country amid an economic … Read more
BUT WE WON’T BECAUSE IT WOULD MAKE TOO MUCH SENSE: Why The United States Should Treat Immigration like A Job Interview.
via thefederalist: When technical qualifications and cultural fit are suggested as elements of immigration policy, adversarial reactions far surpass the typical reflexive and groundless accusations of racism routinely hurled against conservatives. Indeed, the hysteria in such circumstances is reminiscent of the scene in “Raiders of the Lost Ark” in which the Ark of the Covenant is … Read more
Equity Put/Call Volume Ratio’s 21-Day MA
by Tom McClellan The stock market selloff since the last new all-time high on July 26 has brought the bears out, and they have been trading a lot of put options. Some trade those as an outright bearish bet, and some as a hedge on portfolio risk. Whatever the motivation for those trades, it is … Read more
[C] Before [D], It’s Getting Ready To Blow
The [DS] is panicking, [AS] tweets out again about deep fakes. More information is dripping out, the reason for this is get the American people on the same page. HRC email documents were released and they show the server was forwarding classified emails to a foreign entity. Coats resigned today, next id the Declass. Everything … Read more
GAME OVER: Middle-Class, Poor Kids Ditching Youth Sports
Youth sports in the U.S. are diverging according to income — more middle- and lower-income students quitting athletics while participation among wealthier children is rising. The typical family with kids who play sports spends about $700 a year on fees, equipment and more, but some spend up to $35,000. More public schools are also charging … Read more
USPS is losing $1 billion a quarter. How long can it survive?
The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) reported two troubling numbers for its most recent quarter. The first is that revenue was flat at just above $17 billion. The other was that it lost $1.1 billion for the period that ended June 30. Both figures, particularly the loss, beg the question why the country needs 497,157 career employees … Read more
Yield Curve & Household Leverage Predict Different Cyclical Outcomes
via upfina: The yield curve has become a hot topic again in the financial press because the most widely followed 10-2 spread finally inverted. There is too much analysis that just reviews what happens on average each cycle and not enough research into what is likely to happen based on the unique factors in this expansion. … Read more
This is how recessions blind side people
This article goes on to say that in spite of the yield curve inversion, the economy is looking very good. And how Q3 numbers are actually not bad. Which I don’t disagree with. But a yield curve inversion is typically 12-18 months before a recession, not 3-4 months. So we’ll have people talking a lot … Read more
China is in worse shape than the US in this trade war, possibly cause or start of the next global meltdown
by Drew1904 So hear me out. I personally think underneath the hood China really is hurting worse than us in this trade war but with their centuries of experience saving face and authoritarian government they’re putting on a pretty good kabuki theater. I believe they have issued so much debt so fast they are now … Read more
Global bond yields have fallen to 120-year low; The last time global bond yields were this low, Winston Churchill was being captured, and then escaping, during the Anglo-Boer War.
via MarketWatch: It’s been 120 years since bond yields around the world were this low. That’s according to a calculation by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which uses average yields from a host of countries — the U.K, Australia, Japan, Switzerland, France and the U.S. — to arrive at the data. These low yields are … Read more
Google trends forecasting
by kyrychenko17roman Created using VAR model from vars R-package and ggplot2. You can find approach description here – http://randomforest.run/posts/var-time-series-analysis-using-r/ Data collected using trendyy package from Goggle trends.