Corntango: why CORN is overvalued
by djibouti_69 I first want to say I am by no means an expert in commodities, debt, energy, or politics and would welcome any and all counterpoints so please comment with any that you have. Also there is a TLDR …
Sticky post
This crisis is far from over! First final phase of Deflation – then Stagflation. Equities will bottom at much lower levels. Take care!
#SP500 Long term picture. This crisis is far from over! Debt levels must come down before we move into #Kondratiev's Spring. Monetary Reset needed at some point! First final phase of #Deflation – then #Stagflation. #Equities will bottom at much …
“The Food Supply Chain Is Breaking” And We Are Being Warned That “Meat Shortages” Are Imminent
by Michael Snyder When meat processing facilities started shutting down because of the coronavirus pandemic, we were initially told not to worry because the facilities that were still operating normally would be able to make up the difference. But now …
The Fed is in BOJ’s 2007 position, but US stocks are absurdly more overvalued. Buy gold & sell stocks.
Validation. BOJ's total assets were 20% of Japan's total equity market in 7/2007. It’s now 108%. During that time: Gold in JPY rallied 130% and stocks were barely up. The Fed is in BOJ's 2007 position, but US stocks are …
The Boeing Company Downside: How Low Can BA Go? $60 You Say?
by RwXMVchWD5okP25 The Boeing stock has decreased 58.5% so far this year. However, the current stock price is 52.2% lower than the figure at the end of 2017 The Boeing Company’s stock price decreased from $281.05 at the end of …
Italy: Restarting from the 4th of May
by simo1996TO Starting from the 4th of May: -construction and manufacturing sector reopen (not retail). -Restaurants and Pubs ONLY take away allowed. -Inability to move to other regions (only for health problems or job necessities) -Inability to party (even at …
If You Want to SPY to Fall, you NEED Tech Sector to Fall
by SamWiki88 So if you look up SPY Holdings, it states 30% of SPY is weighted on Technology. 5 Companies make up 18% of the S&P 500: Apple, Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. Odds are, most of you are invested …
Chris Vermeulen: Gold On The Cusp Of Reaching $2100
by Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders Chris Vermeulen, CEO & Founder of Technical Traders, joins Tom to discuss the markets once again Chris says, “This is the time to really be paying attention to the markets… It could be a bloodbath.” Chris …
Here’s why Boeing stock price may crash next week
by Kgrabs Boeing walks away from the $4.2 billion deal to buy the commercial jets division of Embraer Two proxy advising firms recommend to shareholders of Boeing to remove five key board members Boeing stock price will most likely open …
Draftkings (DKNG) dramatically overvalued? Sanity check
by doctoreleven217 As many of you know, Draftkings went public Friday through a reverse merger with DEAC. When announced last November, the deal was valued at $3.3 billion. In order to hold $400 million cash as required by the terms …
The Market will tank around October/November
by VictorVaudeville Understanding The Market No one understands the market, but there are some very broad rules of thumb that the market tends to follow. One of them is that the market tends to go down with uncertainty more than …
[DD] My take on Amazon’s earnings and why it makes sense to write options
by Toblet It’s no secret that Covid-19 has helped Amazon in almost every way. Practically every facet of their business has benefited, including: AWS Online shopping Streaming service Increase in prime members Increase in Whole foods deliveries Everyone. EVERYONE already knows this. …
$FCFS. Long pawn shops. DD inside.
by Goldmans_Sach no strike or exp given low liquidity. sorry boys, this is a boring, plain old stock play i have a lot of notes but just going to hit the highlights here, i welcome any thoughts from anyone who …
Markets are engaged in a key battle between the worst evolving fundamental picture in our lifetimes on the one hand, and the largest set of liquidity injections in history.
by northmantrader New bull market? No. Unproven. New lows to come or a retest? No. Unproven. Markets are engaged in a key battle between the worst evolving fundamental picture in our lifetimes on the one hand, and the largest set of …
This Week’s Oil Crash Is a Warning to Speculators in Futures Markets
by moneymetals Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) Is Demanding Answers from the CFTC on Gold Shortages Don’t want to listen? Read the podcast below! Hello again, and welcome to another edition of the Weekly Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason. Well, just …
High yield bonds continue to sell off. The stock market ignored it all last week. A big move in SPY is coming.
https://twitter.com/hks55/status/1254139750413369344 Have a great weekend! Inside week for $SPX which means a move is coming. Key lvls next week: 2870 needs to clear which targets the 200dma zone at 2970-3010. Any new high should be the last before a healthy …
The S&P companies are now trading at the most expensive valuation for the cycle.
Someone has this completely wrong. Either the investors are right with their optimism paying 19X because analysts are completely wrong with the EPS downgrades. If EPS rebounds sharply with the economy, the market will be back to the average 15X …
Equities have major headwinds now
https://twitter.com/hks55/status/1254165889076903936 Cycles Matter. https://t.co/vZZjhhuQ0r — Paranoid Bull (@paranoidbull) April 25, 2020 Dollar shortage warning. New lows for EM currencies with $BRL being decimated. Blood in the streets?Not even close. Wall Street still estimates a 20+% appreciation in $BRL and further …
“Bankruptcy” search term rising slowly
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=US&q=Bankruptcy This is a different kind of f*cked up from previous f*cked up we have witnessed, not directly associated to extreme speculation, (people buying tech not knowing what it is, people buying multiple houses to flip them) and the house …
DIX, GEX and VIX, an analysis by a degenerate
by golfwangthesenuts The Dark Index (DIX) and Gamma Exposure (GEX) have been a subject of debate in the discussion room lately. So i thought that it would be a decent to inform and provide my personal opinion on their movements. …
How to play earnings like you have a braincell
by getabucket92 I, as well, am retarded. However, I just have enough neural capacity to learn from my mistakes. TLDR; Buy options now for earnings that are at least two weeks out. Volatility rises right before earnings which means even …
How Power BI (Microsoft’s Self-Service Data Visualization Platform) will be their new Halo Platform that will lead Data Science
by rawrtherapy TL;DR: Power BI can add pre-made Machine and deep learning models. Recent press conference this was specifically mentioned for scale. I think Microsoft is planning a Machine Learning Store for commercial purposes working like the App Store for …
A High Level Guide to Trading Unusual Options Activity
by qwertyrayz Hey all, I’ve received a good number of requests to post a guide on how exactly one trades high volume unusual options activity. I’ll keep this fairly high-level, and I encourage those who are inspired by this post …
Only 3% of Fidelity 401k participants stopped buying stocks, and only 0.6% of Vanguard investors moved to all cash from Feb to April
by cefpodoxime Many of Fidelity’s retirement savers continued to contribute steadily with an average contribution of 8.9%, and 15% of savers even upped their contributions. Just 3% of 401(k) participants stopped buying stocks with their contributions. Vanguard told Yahoo Finance …
Stay defensive
by pkkiller69 Yo, I came across a very interesting read: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1813987?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents It talks about interest rates during the Civil War and WW1. To summarize, the market rate of interest should generally follow the below formula: Interest Rates = Pure Interest + …
Analysis: “Big 3 Investing” has beaten the market the past 25 years
by proprietism I have done an analysis comparing purchasing the top 3 US market cap companies every year on January 1st and holding until today vs. purchasing the same amount of SPY on January 1st and holding until today (close …
We are in the Midst of a Systemic Collapse. If you think $SPY means anything, you are missing the Entire Picture. Systemic Risk has Risen.
We are in the Midst of a Systemic Collapse. If you think $SPY means anything, you are missing the Entire Picture. Systemic Risk has Risen. — Paranoid Bull (@paranoidbull) April 24, 2020 Systemic Risk is everywhere. There are zero excuses …
VIX Open Interest Still Lagging Price Rebound
by Tom McClellan The SP500 has already gained back half of the Covid Crash. But thus far the total open interest in VIX futures is still at a very low level, indicating that traders are not yet interested in speculating there. …
Small Business Firings to Start
by Raúl Ilargi Meijer Saul Leiter Man in straw hat 1955 The following was written by Bruce Wilds, who runs the Advancing Time blog. Bruce is a small business owner in the Midwest. I get lots of articles sent to me, but …
I lost 25% of my savings this week. Here is what I learned.
by Troflecopter After a long time of very responsibly trading blue chip stocks for modest gains single digit gains, last week I started contriving a plan to get into oil and “hit it big”. I spent at least 40 hours …