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by Michael The global energy supply crunch is only going to get worse as long as the conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are raging. A lot less oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz than normal, and diesel production in Russia has been significantly diminished by relentless Ukrainian drone strikes. As … Read more
There is one number in this graphic I wouldn’t defend. The claim that $1 in 1960 should equal $26 today is too simplistic. Several people caught that immediately. $1 in 1960 is roughly $11.40 today just from inflation. So if we’re going to make the argument, let’s make the better one. Because inflation isn’t the … Read more
via Martin Armstrong Indonesia is another economy that deserves far more attention than it receives in the West. The world’s fourth-most-populous nation expanded 5.29% year-over-year during the second quarter of 2026, beating economists’ expectations of 5.10%. That followed an even stronger 5.61% expansion during the first quarter. For the entire first half of 2026, Indonesia grew 5.45%. … Read more
I can’t state this simply enough: RATES ARE NOT GOING UP! Listen to what they are actually saying. Trump: “A strong country means a lower interest rate – it’s a better credit. Very simple. We should have the lowest rate of any country in the world.” He said growth does not cause inflation, high rates … Read more
Friday was a strange day for these three stocks. The August jobs report came in at 162,000 jobs, almost three times the 56,000 economists expected. Treasury yields jumped. The 2-year hit 4.37%. The 10-year reached 4.78%. The S&P 500 fell 0.38%. And yet $MP finished Friday up 1.39% at $54.53. $UUUU finished up 0.84% at … Read more
U.S. debt has passed $40 trillion, Treasury yields are near multi year highs, and foreign demand is showing signs of weakening. M2 is already growing 5.4% year over year. That matters a lot more to me than another argument over whether this month’s inflation came from oil, tariffs or wages. The only thing that has … Read more
President Donald Trump on Friday doubled down on his threat to cut off trade with countries that have surpluses with the U.S. unless the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. “What I’m saying, very simply, is that we should be paying the lowest interest rate in the world,” Trump said in the Oval Office. He had … Read more
This is starting to look like a confidence problem around U.S. financial assets, not just a fight over Fed rates. Trump is now tying trade policy directly to the Fed, Norway’s $2.3 trillion sovereign fund wants to cut its U.S. Treasury exposure by roughly $80 billion, and the Netherlands just moved 86 tonnes of gold … Read more
Is the economy slowing? We are seeing a slowing of volume in the freight market, all coming from consumer segments. Industrials are robust, consumer is a bust. This is a huge contrast from the last few years, where consumer volumes were resilient, but industrials were a… pic.twitter.com/D2sIDpg9SM — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) September 4, 2026 … Read more
There’s only been three home-price bubbles in U.S. history over the last 70 years. Today, with a Home Price/Income Ratio of 4.33x Back in 2006, when it hit 4.45x. And post WW2, when it hit 5.00x. In the previous two cases, the bubble and lack of affordability didn’t last long. After 2006, prices crashed shortly … Read more
That might be the weirdest part of this whole AI trade. People keep arguing over whether AI is real. Wrong question. It’s obviously real. The better question is how fast better models turn into actual economic results. One guy in the discussion works at a frontier AI lab and basically asked what has really changed … Read more
Nvidia is getting involved further and further down the chain. It invests in the companies. Those companies raise money. They buy Nvidia GPUs. They rent the GPUs to AI companies. Those AI companies need more financing to pay for the compute. Nvidia is sitting in the middle of an increasingly complicated machine. “The 5 listed … Read more
I’m not a doomsayer but…. The United States economy is brewing a perfect storm. Oil prices are days away from soaring to historic level, reserves are at an all time low with no end in sight. This will affect the cost of everything, not just at the pump. Building materials, groceries, labor, transportation. EVERYTHING. To … Read more
Electricity. I went down a rabbit hole looking for the “TSM of near-term electricity for data centers.” There probably isn’t one. And that’s actually the interesting part. TSM became the obvious toll booth for AI because advanced chips have to pass through a relatively concentrated manufacturing bottleneck. Electricity is different. The bottleneck is scattered across … Read more
I’m buying BJ because I think the setup is getting unusually interesting. Not because it’s the next AI stock. Actually, partly because it isn’t. 1. Risk-off money needs somewhere to go If the market starts selling high-beta growth and crowded tech positions, investors don’t necessarily leave stocks altogether. Some money moves toward businesses with predictable … Read more
Don’t look now, but U.S. Housing Inventory is now almost back to pre-pandemic levels. Aug 2019 supply: 1.24 million listings Aug 2026 supply: 1.14 million listings Meaning the U.S. is now within 8% of its pre-pandemic supply. Current supply levels are also 17% above the August average since 2017. And it’s possible by next year, … Read more
A key shift is happening in the Japanese yield curve. Yesterday, Japan’s 10Y yield hit 3% for the first time since 1996. But the more important signal started in early July: The 2Y yield began rising faster than the 10Y. That flattening tells us the market is increasingly… pic.twitter.com/RhM9Ni7vWf — Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy … Read more
I know that sounds crazy. Options have expiration dates. Leveraged ETFs don’t. But that’s exactly why people can get trapped. Most leveraged ETFs reset their exposure every single day. A 3x ETF is trying to give you 3x the DAILY move of its index. It is not promising 3x the return over a year. FINRA … Read more
Private credit's weakest borrowers are starting to crack. When a company is too strained to pay interest in cash, it tacks the interest onto the loan instead. That is PIK, and lenders charge extra for it because only the shakiest borrowers need it. Now look at the split. Yields… pic.twitter.com/OuwXX6zfnM — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® … Read more
