Market Signals

Everyone keeps watching Nvidia. That’s probably not where I’d look first. The more interesting question is where the money financing the AI buildout comes from. Because the AI boom has become much more than companies spending their own cash on servers. It’s turning into a financing chain. Hyperscalers borrow. AI companies raise money. Private credit … Read more

Walmart just gave investors a strange combination of numbers. U.S. comparable sales grew only 2.6% in the latest quarter. That’s the company’s weakest U.S. comparable-sales growth in more than six years. Transactions grew just 1.5%. And investors hated it. The stock dropped sharply after the report. But then you look underneath the headline and things … Read more

via MarketWatch: When it comes to stock-market downturns, listen to the Bible. Even if one is coming, “of that day and that hour knoweth no man,” not even “the angels which are in heaven.” But one is surely coming, and the unraveling of the long-term bond market is raising the chances that one is imminent. … Read more

This time is different until it is not. The fear mongering gets old but the signals keep stacking. CCC rated junk bond spreads widened for eight months while S&P 500 hit new highs Similar divergence showed up before the 2022 market peak ECB expert group says AI driven rally makes a stock correction likely Historical … Read more

Treasury yields rebound, wiping out the decline following Bessent’s intervention Bond yields climbed Thursday morning, erasing most of the pullback they saw the previous day after the Treasury Department announced an intervention aimed at easing pressure on longer-dated government debt. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond — the primary focus of the accelerated buyback — … Read more

Something is happening to the American middle class that is getting harder to ignore. You can work. You can earn more. You can own a home. You can have a retirement account. And still feel like you are falling further behind. The numbers tell a pretty ugly story. The top 1% now owns 31.6% of … Read more

Fitch’s 60+ day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans hit 6.90% in January 2026. That was higher than the worst levels reached during the 2008 financial crisis. The rate has eased since then, reaching about 5.67% in June. But that’s still an extraordinary level of stress. And this isn’t happening in some tiny corner of … Read more

Alphabet (Google) stopped its long-running stock buybacks in 2026 to pour money into AI infrastructure. The company that used to be its own biggest buyer of shares is now issuing debt at higher coupons instead, including long bonds around 6.5%. https://x.com/StealthQE4/status/2089943019872997571

When the biggest AI names start posting bigger losses and higher borrowing costs at the same time, the easy phase is over. https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/2089866065534763297 https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/2089877292277178391 https://twitter.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/2090011141875384731 https://twitter.com/amitisinvesting/status/2089869214257467808 https://twitter.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/2089760740190109901

Imagine you own a house worth $1 million. No mortgage. Just $1 million sitting there. Now look at what that money can earn. The 30-year Treasury recently hit 5.337%, the highest level since 2007. At 5.3%, $1 million produces roughly: $53,000 a year. $4,417 a month. Before taxes. And the crazy part is that you … Read more

Stan Druckenmiller told Scott Bessent exactly what it would take to stop Washington from spending: “the clowns in Washington – unless they get a signal from the bond market, they’re just going to keep spending” this is him explaining the arithmetic nobody runs on corporate America, why he went from 93% invested to flat over … Read more