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The obvious reaction to a CEO making $20 million, $50 million or $100 million is: That’s ridiculous. But that’s actually the least interesting part. The salary isn’t big enough to explain the shareholder damage. One study looked at companies with unusually high CEO compensation after adjusting for company size and performance. The top 10% of … Read more
Everyone is waiting for the Fed to cut. But the bigger question is what happens to the 10 year and 30 year. The Fed controls the short end. Investors control the long end. And those two things can move in opposite directions. We already saw it. The Fed cut rates. Long term yields didn’t collapse. … Read more
Something weird is happening with the American consumer. People are still spending. But they’re starting to feel bad about it. A new survey of more than 5,000 Americans found that 72% feel guilty spending money on things that make them happy when those purchases compete with their financial goals. That’s a pretty good description of … Read more
Something is happening in the bond market that deserves much more attention. It’s not just the United States. Long-term government yields are rising across the major economies. The U.S. 30-year Treasury has been above 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007. Japan’s 10-year yield is approaching 3%, around a three-decade high. Germany’s 30-year yield recently … Read more
This is a pretty big change from Bill Gates. For years, Gates was one of the biggest technology optimists in the world. Now he’s saying he is scared of what AI could do and wishes the technology would move more slowly. Not some random tech critic. Bill Gates. And his solution is even more interesting. … Read more
Scott Bessent just launched Operation Economic Outcast against Iran. Treasury hit nearly 60 entities, individuals and vessels tied to Iranian oil, shadow fleets and financial networks spanning China, Hong Kong, the UAE, Singapore, Switzerland and Europe. Then Bessent dropped the part that really matters. He said: A major financial institution is expected to be sanctioned … Read more
Anthropic is preparing to tell investors that its potential revenue opportunity is more than $30 trillion. Thirty. Trillion. That’s bigger than the entire annual output of the U.S. economy. It’s roughly a quarter of global GDP. And according to the Wall Street Journal, Anthropic is getting to that number by looking at the full scope … Read more
via notayesmanseconomics Yesterday I looked at the economic struggles of Europe and in particular the Euro area in the light of the optimism generated by The Draghi Report of September 2024. Underlying the malaise has been th struggles of what used to be the regions economic superpower Germany so it was with a wry smile … Read more
For 50 years, gold was treated like a relic. Now Washington is talking about it again. And not just talking. It is starting to treat gold like something that actually matters to national power. Gains Pains & Capital pointed out something I think is easy to miss. There have been three separate gold stories lately. … Read more
Washington is daring China and others to keep buying Iranian oil while promising to cut them out of the dollar system if they do. Operation Economic Outcast started August 24 Targets five sectors Iran uses abroad Sanctions over 60 entities, people and ships Secondary sanctions risk for any country or bank still dealing with Tehran … Read more
Filed confidential S-1 with the SEC on June 1. Targeting Nasdaq listing as early as October 2026 .Last private round valued it at $965 billion in May. Investors and bankers now talking $2 trillion or more at IPO. Annualized revenue run-rate already past $65 billion by July. This is the purest bet on the AI … Read more
Something strange is happening with Coca-Cola. The company is doing fine. Actually, really fine. Second-quarter revenue rose 7% to $13.4 billion. Organic revenue grew 6%. Global unit case volume jumped 5%. Comparable EPS increased 11%. And Coca-Cola raised its full-year outlook. So this isn’t a story about Coke falling apart. It’s almost the opposite. Investors … Read more
The same pattern keeps showing up. A smaller slice of every dollar goes to workers, jobs growth is fading under the surface, and consumers are starting to pull back. GDP can still look fine while the people who actually spend the money feel poorer and spend less. The consumer that carried this economy just posted … Read more
The part of the AI boom that scares me isn’t people using ChatGPT less. It’s what happens when the people who financed all this spending need their money back. Look at what is happening around Anthropic. The company is reportedly heading toward an IPO that could value it close to $2 trillion. At the same … Read more
via Claudio Grass I have been following the work and writings of my good friend Jeff Deist for many years, as I’ve always found his insights extremely illuminating. Just a few days ago, I had the pleasure of coming across one of his most recent speeches and I found every word of it truly compelling … Read more
Level of ignorance about $META surprises me every day.$META trial in California isn’t a $1 trillion threat. That’s the statutory maximum $META calculated to show how ridiculous those lawsuits can get. States are asking $200 billion. Historically, when US courts face such high… https://t.co/NdMJgYjxUl pic.twitter.com/NCBfgwxWWh — Oguz Erkan (@oguzerkan) August 24, 2026 Nvidia earnings this … Read more
227,500 properties got foreclosure filings in first half of 2026 That is up 21% from last year and about 28-30% from two years ago Active buyers dropped to roughly 967,000 in July Sellers sat at about 1.46 million, creating a 51% surplus Nearly 80% of major metros now count as buyer markets Absolute foreclosure rate … Read more
via gainspainscapital Scott Bessent just confirmed what I asserted weeks ago: namely that Iran has been using the gold and crypto markets to move capital/continue trade outside of U.S. sanctions. Historically, gold has been a “geopolitical risk” trade that has done well during periods of conflict. Gold’s reaction to Russia invading Ukraine: Gold’s reaction to … Read more
Bessent is throwing every tool at rising long yields before they blow up the budget. Using the TGA gives real size without flooding the bill market. Main force is the $40 trillion debt and stubborn inflation keeping the long end under pressure. Market so far is not buying the rescue story. 30-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BECOMES … Read more
by Michael A historic economic meltdown appears to be percolating. As the price of diesel spikes, that is going to put pressure on the cost of just about everything else. And considering the fact that Canada is our largest trade partner, slapping a 50 percent tariff on all Canadian goods is not going to help … Read more