Market Signals

Paul Tudor Jones in an Interview with Patrick Oshaughnessy sums up and connects the valuation pieces of the overall market well: “We’re 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, … Read more

PayPal was reportedly offered about $53 billion by Stripe and Advent. The board wanted more. The buyers walked. Now look at what happened. PayPal dropped roughly 13% on Friday. The interesting part isn’t the failed deal. It’s what the failed deal exposed. PayPal had climbed more than 40% this quarter, but a big part of … Read more

Graham warned about the point in a bull market when small, obscure companies suddenly become market darlings because investors believe they have discovered the next big thing. Look at what’s happening right now. Companies are adding AI to their story, changing their business descriptions and suddenly attracting investor attention that wasn’t there before. Arena Group … Read more

THE US TREASURY AND THE FED ARE NOW AT WAR WITH EACH OTHER Scott Bessent wants yields down. Kevin Warsh is pushing them up. Neither side is winning. On August 19, Bessent doubled Treasury bond buybacks to $4 billion a week, aimed at the 10-year to 30-year part of the curve, specifically to force long … Read more

The cartel that has set the price of oil for 60 years is coming apart. The UAE walked out in April. Now Venezuela, a founding member since 1960, is mulling the same. Those two exits pull more than 5 million barrels a day, roughly 17% of core OPEC capacity, out of the group.… pic.twitter.com/FskjJ6TTYb — … Read more

This is what people are missing. AI doesn’t have to stop working for the bubble to break. The economics just have to stop getting better fast enough. AI infrastructure spending is exploding while the cost of producing AI output keeps falling. Token prices have fallen roughly 70% per year as efficiency improves, according to Man … Read more

via notayesmanseconomics As 2026 has developed we have seen bond yields become a bigger and bigger issue. As I type this the situation is accentuated by depending on your position either hopes or fears over what Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will say this afternoon UK time. We can learn something from this from Nick … Read more

Warsh messing with the algos… says "hike" 3 times in the first 5 paragraphs pic.twitter.com/wmThgZazaS — Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) August 28, 2026 Warsh’s speech was highly anticipated, even after the last Fed policy meeting in July, when economists say he provided a muddy picture about his willingness to raise interest rates to … Read more

"US corporate profits surge to record as worker payouts wilt" (FT) byu/librariancap inEconomyCharts U.S. corporate profits just hit roughly $4.8 trillion annualized. That’s 18% of national income, the highest share since the aftermath of WWII. At the same time, employee compensation fell to about 60% of national income, the lowest share since the 1950s. Real … Read more

Marvell had a strong quarter. Revenue hit $2.74 billion, up 37%. Data center revenue jumped 46% to $2.17 billion. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.94. Management raised FY2027 revenue guidance to about $12 billion and FY2028 to $18 billion. Then the stock got hammered. Why? Expectations. Marvell’s expanded Google deal could eventually generate up to … Read more

AI is going to be a TAILWIND for SaaS – not the death of SaaS. I’ve been saying this for months, look at today:$CRM +22.6%$NOW +10.0%$FTNT +9.7%$SAP +5.8%$ADBE +5.7%$ACN +3.3% The market spent months pricing in a SaaSpocalypse. That created generational entry points in… pic.twitter.com/7naiHPbPxj — Common Sense Investor (CSI) (@commonsenseplay) August 28, 2026

The chip sales are huge. The new trick is Nvidia signing the landlord’s paper so the customer can keep buying chips. That is not Enron. It is also not a clean hardware company anymore. https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/NVDA/10-q-nvidia-corp-quarterly-earnings-report-ba2938ed4873.html AI bubble co Nvidia has added an additional section to its off-balance sheet obligations – $108.5 billion in guarantees. Like … Read more

Q2 revenue $96.2 billion, up 106 percent year over year Data center $89 billion, up 117 percent Company guided fiscal 2028 growth near 70 percent, about $690 billion vs Street $570 billion Accounts receivable $63 billion, DSO rose to 60 days Long-term debt jumped to $32.4 billion after a $25 billion bond issue Reports say … Read more

Burger King’s President Tom Curtis breaks down Trump’s emergency order dumping 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free foreign beef into the US market over the next 90 days. While domestic cattle ranchers are furious about losing their pricing power, Burger King and other massive fast-food chains are treating this like pure margin relief. High meat costs … Read more

The obvious reaction to a CEO making $20 million, $50 million or $100 million is: That’s ridiculous. But that’s actually the least interesting part. The salary isn’t big enough to explain the shareholder damage. One study looked at companies with unusually high CEO compensation after adjusting for company size and performance. The top 10% of … Read more