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by Michael Since war with Iran erupted in February, the world has been using a lot more oil than it has been producing. The good news is that we had a tremendous amount of extra oil sitting around. As a result, we have been able to avoid shortages and we have been able to serve … Read more
That expansion drove asset prices and everyday costs higher. Homes food insurance and borrowing costs all reset up. 30 year mortgage rates sit around 6.7 percent near the 7 percent level. One post notes Biden era saw high illegal immigration numbers around 11 million encounters. AI projected to displace about 15 million US jobs over … Read more
Credit card debt rises to $1.26 trillion, nearing all-time record Americans’ credit card debt climbed to $1.26 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, released Tuesday. The $21 billion quarterly increase left total card debt at $1.26 trillion, … Read more
Chicago–Naperville–Elgin posts a 26.4% distress rate on $16.6 billion of CMBS loans. San Francisco–Oakland–Fremont sits at 21.5% distress on $18.6 billion. These two metros lead in absolute distressed dollars among markets above the 20% threshold. Across the top 50 metros, total distressed balance reaches $45.8 billion out of $393.5 billion, or 11.6%. Multifamily distress has … Read more
Spend less than you make. Save before you spend. Invest early and often. Keep an emergency fund. Buy assets instead of liabilities. Learn skills that increase your income. And don’t let your lifestyle rise every time your income does. Nothing here is complicated. The hard part is doing it for years. Take $200 a month … Read more
We’re very close to a time where Trump’s “we have a deal” lines can’t stop the selling in the markets. He basically has zero credibility now. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 11, 2026 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US-IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL ODDS HIT NEW LOWS Odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal have fallen to fresh lows on Kalshi. Traders … Read more
When it comes to the AI hyperscalers and financing the math ain’t mathing: https://t.co/YpQO7viLtV — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 12, 2026 The AI boom made 7 companies absurdly profitable. Everyone else is stuck exactly where they started. Profit margins for the 7 biggest tech names have climbed to roughly 25%. The other 493 companies in … Read more
Biggest US mortgage lender United Wholesale Mortgage lost $600 million on rate bets and needed a rescue deal from Oaktree. Company suspended common-stock dividends and shares dropped about 35 percent in one day. Credit card balances rose another $21 billion to $1.26 trillion in the latest quarter. Home equity lines of credit rose $13 billion … Read more
by David Haggith It took 14 years for stocks to get back to where they were after the 2000 crash, and that doesn’t adjust for inflation over that time or interest you could’ve made if you took the safe-and-easy path. Iran says today that it will never again negotiate with Donald Trump, and reiterates that … Read more
by Michael The unraveling of the yen carry trade is accelerating, and that is really bad news for the entire global financial system. For such a long time, investors could borrow yen for next to nothing and invest that money in financial assets all over the world. That helped to create some epic financial bubbles, … Read more
Wall Street says inflation is beaten. The people who actually buy the groceries disagree. The New York Fed's survey just put consumers' 3-year inflation expectations above 3.3%, the highest since 2022 and hotter than any point in the 9 years before prices exploded in 2021.… pic.twitter.com/egrClKOJ8e — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) August 10, 2026 … Read more
Oil prices jumped about 5% Monday as doubt grew that the U.S. and Iran will reach a deal to increase ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed about 5% to close at $82.13 per barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, also settled around 5% higher at $87.72 a barrel. President Donald Trump told Axios on Sunday that the … Read more
There is one argument about the AI bubble that keeps bothering me. People say AI can’t be a bubble because the demand is obviously real. And they’re right. We use it every day. We ask questions. Write emails. Summarize things. Code. Research. Study. Make spreadsheets. Plan trips. Companies are putting it into customer service, software, … Read more
Michael Burry has re-entered out-of-the-money put trades on Palantir Technologies Inc., purchasing March 2027 puts with strike prices in the low-to-mid $100s as option volatility cooled. Burry sees Palantir shares at under $1 over the long run. The investor added to his position in animal health leader Zoetis Inc., arguing its share price decline has … Read more
America's biggest home builders are slashing prices. Lennar has reduced its average selling price from $511k to $377k, a nearly 25% decline (inclusive of incentives). DR Horton has cut from $415k to $366k, a 12% decline. Four years ago, this would have been hard to imagine.… pic.twitter.com/vJCruOVAOr — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) August 6, 2026 THE … Read more
The thing I remember most about market crashes isn’t the day everything turns red. It’s what happens afterward. The people who lived through 2000 and 2008 remember something younger traders haven’t really experienced. Markets can become boring. Not for a week. For years. After the dot-com bubble burst, the Nasdaq fell about 78% from its … Read more
No signs (yet) that AI is driving higher margins for anyone except people selling AI byu/JuliusCaesar121 inEconomyCharts https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/the-buyers-of-ai-are-still-waiting-for-the-payoff The S&P 500 is spending heavily on AI. But it is not showing up in profit margins since 2022. Looking at the individual sectors of the S&P 500 outside tech shows that the picture is flat, cyclical … Read more
Excellent read: Janet Yellen started this trend. Now Scott Bessent has taken selling t-bills at Treasury auctions to a whole new level in order to borrow money cheaply: However, it exposes us to inflation: pic.twitter.com/Ods8Vr29ix — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 8, 2026 How Scott Bessent used financial engineering to finance the $2 trillion deficit while … Read more
What do you get when you combine a 2008 housing bubble, a 2000 dot-com bubble and a 1998 currency bubble? This is the part of market history I keep coming back to. What do you get when you combine the ingredients of three very different crises? A 2008 style housing and credit bubble. A 2000 … Read more
https://www.usdebtclock.org/ National debt is the outstanding financial obligations of a country. The national debt of the United States is what the federal government owes to its creditors. The U.S. has always carried national debt, and the majority of presidents have added to it. However, total national debt has been expanding rapidly since 2008 due to … Read more