recessions – Investment Watch

The 2020s: Two Recessions, Higher Taxes, and Japan-Like Flat Markets

April 18, 2019

By John Mauldin I’m slowly losing confidence in the economy. I still think the economy is okay for now. But I also see recession odds rising considerably in 2020. Maybe it will … Read more

We Have Seen This Happen Before The Last 3 Recessions – And Now It Is The Worst It Has Ever Been

April 16, 2019April 15, 2019

by Michael Snyder Since the last financial crisis, we have witnessed the greatest corporate debt binge in U.S. history. Corporate debt has more than doubled since then, and it is … Read more

“What we know is that the yield curve inversion preceded each of the last 11 recessions, and that alone is strong evidence of correlation.” The U.S. yield curve inverted in December. There’s a recession or worse on the horizon.

March 31, 2019

via forbes: There’s a lot of chatter about the inversion of the yield curve and how it’s an indicator of an impending recession. To better understand, let’s take a look … Read more

Recessions Often Are Only Realized Way After The Fact From A Data Perspective, And Markets Typically Draw Down Significantly Before A True Recession Even Is Recognized

March 25, 2019March 24, 2019

by cbus20122 The dotcom bubble peaked and burst right as the curve inverted. There is zero guarantee that the markets keep going up from here, although history definitely says its quite … Read more

Is A Recession Looming? Low Unemployment And Declining Treasury Curve Occur Just Before Recessions (And Lousy Wage Growth)

December 11, 2017

by Anthony B Sanders US Real GDP is growing at 2.3% YoY. What’s not to like? How about the lowest unemployment rate since 2000 and the worst wage “recovery” in … Read more

The 2020s: Two Recessions, Higher Taxes, and Japan-Like Flat Markets

We Have Seen This Happen Before The Last 3 Recessions – And Now It Is The Worst It Has Ever Been

“What we know is that the yield curve inversion preceded each of the last 11 recessions, and that alone is strong evidence of correlation.” The U.S. yield curve inverted in December. There’s a recession or worse on the horizon.

Recessions Often Are Only Realized Way After The Fact From A Data Perspective, And Markets Typically Draw Down Significantly Before A True Recession Even Is Recognized

Federal Reserve Confesses Sole Responsibility for All Recessions

Economists, Who Almost Never Predict Recessions, Still Making the Same Mistakes

TICK TOCK – The Fed is always surprised by recessions, financial crisis, and the busts created by their own policies.

Housing and Recessions

Identifying leading causes to recessions

Recessions are always the result of a confluence of events that feed back on one another.

Almost All Recessions Began 6 to 24 Months After the Yield Curve Inverted

Lacy Hunt: These Conditions Preceded the Last 7 Recessions

Is A Recession Looming? Low Unemployment And Declining Treasury Curve Occur Just Before Recessions (And Lousy Wage Growth)