Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter The ECB’s Negative Interest Rate Policy has been the funniest monetary joke ever. The distortions in the European bond markets are actually quite hilarious, when you think about them, and it’s hard to keep a straight …
The average contract rate on the 30-year fixed will likely end the day as high as 4.875 percent for the highest creditworthy borrowers and 5 percent for the average borrower. Tuesday’s move follows positive economic data in retail sales, suggesting that …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter But no blood in the streets. Just a rate-hike cycle at work. Today the US Treasury 10-year yield broke out of its recent range and surged 8 basis points to 3.08% at the close, the highest …
EXPLAIN MONETARY POLICY TO A CHILD https://twitter.com/OccupyWisdom/status/993609657024475136 Fed balance sheet pic.twitter.com/lJopxYhyny — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 7, 2018 International High Yield sounds warning… pic.twitter.com/WhujksVRpA — Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) May 6, 2018 pic.twitter.com/x2mTLIazwa — Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) May 7, 2018 https://twitter.com/OccupyWisdom/status/993592674199490562 https://twitter.com/GregMannarino/status/993523547313094656 https://twitter.com/GregMannarino/status/993523547313094656 Fed’s …
BY JOHN MAULDIN Last week brought a little (at least short-term) good news if you’re worried about the yield curve inverting. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 3% for the first time in four years. This will be the opposite …
via the Felder Report It seems everyone is talking about the yield curve right now. It also seems most economists and investors are quick to dismiss what would typically signal a clear economic warning as nothing worth worrying about. But …
By David Stockman During an appearance on Fox Business this AM, we were reminded once again why capitalist prosperity in America is so dangerously imperiled and why the great bubbles in the stock and bond markets are living on borrowed …
via Carla Mozee and Anneken Tappe The U.S. dollar broadly advanced Wednesday, resuming its recent uptrend inspired by higher Treasury yields, as the 10-year yield stayed above 3%. What are currencies doing? The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, +0.39% which gauges the buck …
by M. K. Matthews, The Organic Prepper The ten year U.S. Treasury Bonds rose above 3% for the first time since January 2011. The main reason is speculation that the Fed will seek an increasingly aggressive rise in interest rates. Yields …
via Leia Klingel Wall Street is fretting about the flattening yield curve, concerned that if the trend continues – there could soon be a clear indication that a recession is imminent. The gap between two-year Treasury notes and the 10-year benchmark …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter The two-year yield, now surging, is a leading indicator. The Financial Stress Index, released weekly by the St. Louis Fed, is designed to track financial conditions that companies face in the markets. It reached record lows …
Eleven members of the House GOP have given a criminal referral for the top people in the FBI, DOJ and State Department in the Obama Administration. James Comey, Hillary Clinton, Loretta Lynch and Andrew McCabe were all accused of a …
via Carl Surran The tightening yield spread is raising concerns among investors and Fed officials, as the phenomenon may indicate skepticism about the longer-term outlook for U.S. economic growth and inflation. The yield curve from five to 30 years continued to flatten …
by AlexPitti The yield curve is flattening as the difference between the 10 year treasury and 2 year yield is 44 basis points. That’s not enough to worry about a recession now, but some analysts are extrapolating continued flattening to predict …
via Jim Leaviss As the U.S. yield curve flattened to just 45 bps (2s-10s) last week, we dug out something I wrote back in 2007, in the early days of this blog. A chart that accompanied the blog showed that a) U.S. …
via FT Highly-rated government bonds faced selling on Monday, sending the US two-year yield to a near decade high, after the US and Russia avoided direct engagement this weekend during American-led strikes in Syria. The US two-year Treasury yield climbed on …
by Daniel Carter After the sharp selloff in stocks in February, much has been said about a potential recession and stock market crash. Although these events are very difficult to predict, certain indicators are telling us that the next economic slowdown …
via BBG When it comes to the Treasury yield curve, going inverted isn’t the “great move” that Tom Cruise boasted about pulling off when piloting his F-14 Tomcat jet in the cult classic movie Top Gun. After widening in early February, …
by Shaun Richards Today’s headline or title introduces a subject which I find both frustrating and annoying.This is not only because it regularly misunderstood but also because it represents something of a financialisation of the human experience. What I mean …
by John Rubino For a while there it looked like the blow-off top of this expansion was somewhere in the future. Now it’s starting to look like 2017 was as good as it’s going to get – with serious implications …
10 year yield has broken to the upside. I expect, yield rise to strangle growth causing a recession, which will take yields down again. One last drop/re-test before NEW LT YIELD REGIME. Notice rounding-bottom and pot. break-out target at either …
by Jesse Colombo A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece in which I estimated when the next U.S. recession and bear market would start based upon where we were in the current yield curve cycle and comparing it to the prior …
by Kimble Charting Is the bond bull market of the past 30-years over? Are we seeing just the start of a trend higher in interest rates or are they about to blast off? This isn’t the million dollar question, its the …
By David Stockman You can say this for the swamp creatures: Their gall knows no limits. Apparently, the two government lifers running the US Senate—-Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer (hereafter “Mitchels & Chuckles”)—-have reached a deal to bust the already red-ink soaked budget by $400 …
by Dave Here’s my opinion: 3%. We all like round numbers. At the current rate (its up 6 bps today) we’ll get there in 3 (three) days.
by Anthony B Sanders US Real GDP seems to be booming (see yesterday’s Atlanta Fed GDPNow Report for 4.2% growth) while The Fed continues to raise their target rate and unwinding its $4.4 trillion balance sheet. The result? The US …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter And how would the housing market digest these kinds of mortgage rates? In this cycle, the Fed has hiked its target range for the federal funds rate only after meetings that were followed by a press …
by Chris The signs coming out fo the US Treasury market have been less than encouraging for the stock bull case. In fact, the combination of rising interest rates and a falling dollar is possibly a sign that a major …
By SchiffGold Ten-year bond yields have hit their highest level since July 2014. Meanwhile, the stock market has gone up about 45% since that time. Contrast that with earnings that have increased just 6%. As Peter Schiff pointed out in his …
What’s your opinion on the markets right now? Do you think 2018 will bring more central bank intervention? Take a look at the indicators and you will find one after another showing all-time records. We look at the stock prices …