by visualcapitalist If you pay any attention to financial media, chances are that you’ve heard increased chatter about the flattening “yield curve” in the past few weeks. For professional investors, talking about the yield curve is close to second nature – …
via spurnburn: Plot created using MATLAB. Blue line shows the difference in yield between 10-year bonds and 2-year bonds. Basically, shows the return on long term versus short term bonds (Source: US Treasury Department, treasury.gov) Orange line shows the price of an …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2Le7spCPcg We have a bona fide Wall Street legend on the podcast today – Marty Fridson, referred to as the “Dean of High Yield” because of his unique knowledge of toxic loans to unworthy companies and their inevitable consequences as …
Hedgeye, Released on 8/28/18 Did someone say slowdown? An important historical precedent is emerging which investors should keep a close eye on—it may be another signal that the U.S. is in the late stages of its current economic cycle. The …
via Interest.co.nz: The warnings from the bond market are getting serious. Today, the US 2-10 yield curve dropped below +20 bps for the first time in more than a decade. In fact they didn’t just drop, they fell sharply. The 2 …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter How does it compare to German, Japanese, and Chinese yield curves? On Friday, the US Treasury 2-year yield rose to 2.63% and the 10-year yield remained at 2.82%. This squeezed the spread between them to just …
ECB not expected to hike off of all-time lows until October 2019. Market is expecting Fed Funds Rate to be at 2.71% by that time. h/t @charliebilello
U.S. high-yield bond sales are on track to be the lowest for a year since 2009. Another recent shift in performance away from #SmallCaps could start to reverse #FundFlows @WSJ @soberlook @MorningstarInc Stock Outflows Swell as Investors Seek Refuge in …
by Michael Snyder Seven times since the 1960s we have seen the yield curve invert, and in each of those seven instances an economic recession in the United States has followed. Will this time be any different? Today, the yield curve …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter How the “Yield Curves” Stack Up in central-bank manipulated bond markets. So we had a little bond-market upheaval this morning. After President Trump successfully manipulated bond yields down yesterday and today by griping about the Fed’s …
#China #EmergingMarkets #Gold Chart fr. ZH. The Fed has been hammering Chinese banks, that have borrowed $2T short in the offshore interbank market & lent long domestically, with higher rates & now DX. $200B tariff list clear notice of less …
by stockboardasset The Treasury yield curve gets flatter every day, and some strategists expect it to invert, meaning short end yields, like that on the 2-year note, could rise above longer duration yields, like the 10-year. A flat curve is the …
From Birch Gold Group A few weeks ago we reported the Fed was getting hawkish despite what they were calling “low inflation.” In that article, we showed rates possibly being raised more than 4 times in 2019. But more importantly, we warned that anyone investing …
via SUNNY OH An inverted yield curve has a strong record as a recession predictor The yield curve has captured Wall Street—and to a lesser extent Main Street’s—attention in recent weeks. And for a good reason. The past nine recessions have been …
via Aaron Elstein A lot of Wall Street number-crunchers are going to be chained to their desks tomorrow when JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all report second-quarter earnings more or less simultaneously. Truth be told, all is not well in …
via confoundedinterest: It is difficult to predict how the trade scuffles between the US, China and Europe will play out. But what we do know is that the US Treasury 10Y-2Y slope continues flattening, now down to 26.4 basis points. Meanwhile, …
meanwhile 2s10s .266 2s10s swaps < 10bps 5s30s < 2bps 10s30s already inverted Global 10-Year Yields…
via Forex Live There are two things that have been giving added support for a flatter yield curve so far this year, one is the Fed continuing to tighten and the second being the trade tensions. The closer we are …
by Kevin Muir of The Macro Tourist Last week’s piece about the widening of investment-grade credit versus high-yield got so many intelligent responses, I thought instead of writing on a new topic today, I would take the lazy route and simply share the insights. …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter This Fed is getting seriously hawkish: It revealed that instead of thinking about backing off rate hikes, it’s replacing the yield curve. In the minutes of the FOMC meeting on June 12 and 13, released this …
by presaging I usually follow the yield curve fairly closely (10 Year T-note minus the 2 Year T-note) as it is usually a good predictor for recessions. Utilizing regression models, seasonal fluctuation models, MA(200), and one of my most trusted …
https://twitter.com/OccupyWisdom/status/1012787358457122824 That’s when they pay out more on deposits than they make on loans..so they stop lending. 📈 markets need liquidity 📉 #Fed hiking & destroying liquidity 📈#LIBOR up & 400T of loans & derivatives effected 📉yield curve inverting 📈 …
Global Yield Curve Has Inverted for 1st Time Since 2007 Dow transports could soon be in ‘jeopardy,’ and it could spell trouble for stocks, says trader The Dow transports-tracking ETF (IYT) has fallen more than 3 percent in the last …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter See Argentina’s 100-year dollar-bond and emerging-market “turmoil” as the Hot Money flees. Let’s be clear: It’s not just Argentina. But Argentina is the most elegant example. The exodus of the hot money from emerging markets where cheap dollar-debts …
by dreamingofaustralia I used to work for AT&T but sold my shares at the beginning of this year. The dividend is great – but the stock has lost a decent amount in the past few years. Having sometimes worked with the …
via variantperception.com Recessions are like death – it’s not a matter of if they will happen, but when. Morbid? Perhaps, but as Steve Jobs put it, “Remembering that I’ll be dead soon is the most important tool I’ve ever encountered to …
To clarify, I’m not suggesting people should be day traders. It means we shouldn’t just buy something and wait for it to appreciate. We should be investing into things which give us passive income. If they appreciate along the way, …
In early May 2018, The Wall Street Journal asked professional forecasters to predict when the next recession would begin. Nearly 6 in 10 answered that the next recession will begin sometime in 2020. […] Overall, both indicators tend to be …
by FS FS Insider recently interviewed Chris Puplava, CIO of Financial Sense Wealth Management, to discuss the bonanza in stock buybacks by US companies, why risks are brewing for emerging markets, and how we now see an inversion in the “private” …
BY JOHN MAULDIN The experts who investigate transport disasters, crimes, and terror incidents usually create a chronology of events. Reading them in hindsight can be haunting—you know what’s coming and you want to scream, “Don’t do that!” But of course, it’s …