Now that 2018 is gone and 2019 has begun, we can continue with the unprecedented times. Odd occurrences are happening every day. Banks are failing. Stocks have fallen. The public is simply unaware. 2008 is too far away to remember …
by SpontaneousDisorder The government borrows from the market for different lengths of time. ie from 1 month to 30 years. The interest rates (yield) vary according to what the market demands at any moment. This is the yield curve. An …
by Doug Hornig, Contributor, GoldSilver GoldSilver’s Mike Maloney recently released a video dealing with inversion of the yield curve in the bond market. It’s an excellent introduction to a subject about which all investors should have a basic grasp. And it’s important …
via project-syndicate: A decade after the subprime bubble burst, a new one seems to be taking its place in the market for corporate collateralized loan obligations. A world economy geared toward increasing the supply of financial assets has hooked market participants …
by Daniel Carter The yield curve is collapsing once again, and that has many investors talking about what it means for the US economy. Overwhelmingly, the sentiment is that a flattening yield curve is bad for the economy, and an inverted …
by confoundedinterest The US Treasury 10Y-2Y slope just breached the 10 basis point barrier. And with that, gold is rising. Yes, we are on the inversion express. With gold as the protection. All aboard! Jerome Powell is engineer.
by John Rubino Despite all the ominous press being devoted to the soon-to-be-inverted yield curve, it’s not always clear why such a thing matters. In other words, how, exactly does a line on a graph slipping below zero translate into a …
Join Mike Maloney as he reveals an important factor of the partial Yield Curve inversion that is being ignored by mainstream news and media. Then stick around to the end of the video to see yet another indicator that is …
From Birch Gold Group Looks like the yield curve the Fed swept under the rug back in June continues to prove itself a reliable potential signal for market correction. On Tuesday the Dow Jones continued to trend downward since October 3rd, dropping 800 …
by Lance Roberts So, have you heard the one about the “flattening yield curve?” It almost sounds like the start of a bad joke because there have been so many discussions during this past year on it. However, it has been …
by Glenn West (follow Glenn on Twitter) of West Pacific Trading Analytics What are Bond Rate Yields Signaling Into This Rate Collapse? Confidence is such a game… Is this a market crash or something more? If markets hold above 2018 lows, than it is …
by Frank Holmes, CEO, U.S. Global Investors One of the most reliable indicators of an economic slowdown just flashed a warning sign this week. On Monday, the yield curve between the five-year Treasury yield and three-year Treasury yield inverted, or …
by Troy The stock market tanked -3% today as the yield curve started to invert. Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on …
CDXIG5Y led this $VIX explosion – please be careful there is a credit problem developing in US pic.twitter.com/PfrPIUs7EO — Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) December 4, 2018 JPMORGAN'S DIMON SAYS SHARE BUYBACKS SHOULD NOT BE DONE WHEN STOCK IS EXPENSIVE now he tells …
via Brian Chappatta The U.S. Treasury yield curve just inverted for the first time in more than a decade. It’s a moment that the world’s biggest bond market has been thinking about for the past 12 months. I wrote around this time last …
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-03/the-flattening-yield-curve-just-produced-its-first-inversion Some analysts attributed the short-end underperformance to demand for riskier assets as global trade tensions eased following this weekend’s tariff truce between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Others pinned it to modestly higher expectations for Fed …
via Katherine Greifeld and Emily Barrett As bond traders scale back Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations, one section of the U.S. yield curve is on a fast track to inversion. The spread between 3-year and 5-year Treasury yields shrank to less than 0.1 basis point on …
by Troy December is almost here, and some traders are looking forward to the Santa Claus Rally. We demonstrated that seasonality is not consistent. Hence, seasonality factors are of secondary importance. Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively …
via BI: In the era of peak quantitative easing (QE), there weren’t many options out there for investors seeking a little bit of yield. Government bond yields were ultra-low, corporate debt yields, especially for investment grade, weren’t much higher, while …
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2EY#0 If LQD closes below 110 in a convincing manner, it would likely foreshadow an even more powerful bond and stock market bust ahead. As someone who has been warning heavily about dangerous bubbles in U.S. corporate bonds …
by Martin Armstrong Italy is arguing that it will retain its budget and refers to how both France and Germany exceeded their budgets and the Commission disregard the Maastricht treaty rules in the case of both countries. In the budget …
by lxvresearch “Everything turns in circles and spirals with the cosmic heart until infinity. Everything has a vibration that spirals inward or outward — and everything turns together in the same direction at the same time. This vibration keeps going: …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter Ironically, after having lamented the flattening yield curve for a year, soothsayers are now lamenting the steepening of the yield curve. On Friday, capping a rough week in the US Treasury market, the 10-year yield closed …
https://twitter.com/OccupyWisdom/status/1048030740586405889 Debt market > stock market With 3 months to go, US Bonds (Barclays Agg) are on pace for their worst year in history… pic.twitter.com/3wKVT591ux — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 5, 2018 From the market bottom in 2009 to now, …
by Michael Snyder Why would the IMF use the phrase “a second Great Depression” in a report that they know the entire world will read? To be more precise, the IMF stated that “large challenges loom for the global economy to prevent a …
Another sign that we are close to the end of the party… market breadth continues to deteriorate… pic.twitter.com/prbOZo5LX3 — Ronnie Stoeferle (@RonStoeferle) September 26, 2018 Fantastic chart: Does the flattening yield curve suggest that market volatility (VIX) should climb over …
via RecessionAlert.com There is a lot of focus on the U.S. yield curve at the moment given its relentless move toward inversion (when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates). Can the history of the yield curve provide for useful forecasting …
Indonesia has lost so much rice production they will import two million additional tons of rice to stabilize prices as price spikes sent food inflation up 12% so far over the last six months. India, Myanmar, Vietnam all significant reduction …
Investors are now earning the smallest earnings yield on the S&P 500 relative to 2-year Treasury yields since 2007. pic.twitter.com/DHhOqOBq2G — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) September 20, 2018 So, companies are more leveraged than ever. According to Bloomberg, “The average debt-to-capital …
via cmegroup: We freely admit: Figure 1 is probably the strangest chart that you will ever see, at least in finance. You may be wondering: did they throw blue spaghetti noodle on paper for inspiration and then write an economics article …