by confoundedinterest17 Markets are a sea of red, while the Treasury curve continues to steepen. The Fed continues to print money despite historic low money velocity. Aka, walking dead … money. Yes, this is the Walking Dead Money market. 😂😂😂 …
by GabenFanClub As I see it: 1) The yield is already starting to become attractive major foreign buyers. Japanese institutions are the biggest foreign buyers and are continuing to add more. investing.com/news/economic-indicators/foreigners-raise-holdings-of-us-treasuries-for-second-month-in-january-data-2447322 2) Fear of China selling USTs to cause …
by Michael Markowski The chart below which covers the yields for US 10 year and 30-year Treasury bonds from January 1940 to March 2021, was pulled from a March 4, 2021 Elliot Wave report. The chart depicts the crashes for the Dow …
by confoundedinterest17 The Biden Effect is unlike the Butterfly Effect. More like the Mothra/Godzilla Effect. Oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield have risen since Ol’ Joe took office. Check out the 10Y-2Y yield curve slope after Biden took office. But wait! …
by confoundedinterest17 Gold and silver rose on Monday morning while cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum fell. Cryptocurrencies (top 5) have exceeded $1 trillion. To be sure, big taxes on cryptocurrencies are on the radar as The Federal Reserve tries to kill competition …
By Robert Ross For about a week last month, the yield curve inverted for the first time since July 2006. Prior to that, this happened in July 2000 and April 1989. There’s a pattern here… each inversion hit about 18 …
via @TaviCosta: These rates tend to converge as we approach the end of economic cycles. Just like the tech & housing bubble peaks! Classic head-and-shoulders pattern. Look out. New video & letter out soon.
Gold implied vol now at all-time lows! Meanwhile: Near 50% of US yield curve inverted. Stocks near record overvalued.Record margins.Longest bull market ever.Outrageously bullish sentiment.Fed flipped dovish.Record global debt/GDP. Nothing wrong here… pic.twitter.com/EnusG9yTER — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) April 14, …
by confoundedinterest17 To listen to some talking heads, everything is beautiful. But according to the bond market, everything is not beautiful. In fact, there is concern about global economic growth and financial fragility. There is now $10 trillion in negative yielding bonds …
via Zerohedge: On Friday, we reported that in Japan’s just concluded latest fiscal year, the Bank of Japan bought a record 5.65 trillion yen worth of stocks. Specifically, with the BOJ’s balance sheet now well above 100% of Japan’s GDP… …the …
via @TaviCosta: Liquidity is not the driver of this everything rally. Hope is. Not even massive global QE can prevent asset bubbles from bursting. See 2007-8 scenario below. Crescat new video coming out soon. 2-year yield falling after re-testing multi-decade resistance …
via @TaviCosta: -% of yield curve inversions surging globally; -15 economies now have 30-yr yields lower than LIBOR overnight rates; -US vs. German 5-year yield spread just broke down from a multi-year support line; -UST vs Bunds 10-year yield spread poised …
via forbes: There’s a lot of chatter about the inversion of the yield curve and how it’s an indicator of an impending recession. To better understand, let’s take a look at both the history, and the current situation. Remember that …
by Lance Roberts A Run For The Highs Ignore The Yield Curve…They Said Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager A Run For The Highs Friday wrapped up the first quarter of 2019, and it was the best quarterly performance …
By John Mauldin Last week, the yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. The yield for 10-year Treasuries fell below the yield for the 3-month T-Bill. The inversion set off alarm bells and US stocks fell sharply. While …
🚧Probabilities of Recession calculated from the Yield Curve, via @zerohedge tks 2 @Analyst_G @ThePitBoss16 @TradersCom @Lizardjb3 @OccupyWisdom @hks55 @SpeculaThor @Analyst_G @mgftzgd @LordPolemos @CoryLVenable @Simple_Trends @PMack1224 @scar_david @ezkappdo @mcm_ct @EconGlobal pic.twitter.com/kdGSWrsDjK — Antonio Pérez-Algás (@apanalis) March 29, 2019 Nearly the lowest …
Now that the Trump “witch hunt” called the Mueller investigation is over, Trump goes on the attack. There was No collusion with the Russians and No obstruction. Now, look for the Trump Administration to strike back. This was a made …
via upfina: The biggest story on Friday was that the spread between the 10 year yield and the 3 month yield went negative which means the yield curve inverted. The 10 year yield fell 10 basis points to 2.44% which was …
by Martin Armstrong Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bill fell below that of the 3-month note for the first time since 2007. This is what everyone calls an Inverted Yield Curve, and is seen as an early …
by confoundedinterest17 The US Treasury yield curved inverted on Friday for the first time since 2007 and it became ever more inverted today as 10-year T-Note Volatility spiked. Investors are taking large bets on the leveraged VIX note with inflows the …
via mishtalk: Yields dropped across the board today as the Fed said it would be patient. A “Dot Plot” shows no hikes expected in 2019. The lead chart shows interest levels today vs those on December 18, the last meeting in …
via Reuters: It seemed like an opportunity a lender would not want to miss. The loan paid 10.25 percent interest which would go up if a benchmark rose. The borrower was Trident USA Health Services, a growing company which provided …
Originally posted at RecessionAlert.com Based on the methodology discussed here, we hereby update our U.S Yield-curve inversion forecast and subsequent recession and stock market peak forecasts. All the forecast dates have moved forward by 1 month as the yield curve continues to …
via mishtalk: The yield curve is inverted in 11 different spots. The latest is 5-year to 3-month inversion. The yield curve recession signal is louder and louder. Inversions are persistent and growing. Let’s compare the spreads today to that of December …
by Status_Flux The main reason for raising interest rates is to combat inflation. However the fed doesn’t actually set rates for short term bonds but rather sets the rates at which banks borrow from each other. This in turn affects demand …
An inverted yield curve predicts recessions. h/t br_anonbinary
from Jason Hartman’s Creating Wealth Jason Hartman and Doug take today’s episode as a chance to look at some key happenings in our world today. By now you’ve heard Jason discuss how there’s a softening in prices at the top of …
https://twitter.com/hks55/status/1085598670408552448 https://twitter.com/hks55/status/1085630001624403968 $GS Monthly #Update pic.twitter.com/SuA0fJXMvS — HiddenPivots (@HiddenPivots) January 16, 2019 https://twitter.com/hks55/status/1085565195366354944 The credit cycle looks something like this. We’ve basically been stuck in Phase 3 since 2015, though there was a mini rebellion in energy credit in early-2016. …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter The US Treasury yield curve is having some bad-hair days. It is overall flat-ish, but within this description, it is steepening at the short end, sagging in the middle, and steepening at the long end. And …
Recession, 10% High Yield Spreads and aKey Points 1½% Fed Funds Rate – Prelude to a Storm?Tough it was that dawn to be an investor, but to be in Treasuries was very heaven…’ (after Wordsworth) ask act@liquidity.com for reports ! …