by confoundedinterest17 Raphael Bostic and Goldman Sachs are both calling for dramatic rate increases to fight inflation … that they helped cause with their monetary stimulypto. I call this The Fed’s March of the Toreadors as The Fed now attempts to kill …
https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1483697971728429060 https://twitter.com/WifeyAlpha/status/1483777562002214912 UK Wage Hikes Zeroed by Inflation Inflation has nullified increases to wages in Britain last year, with workers experiencing a decline in pay in real terms in November, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed on Tuesday. The …
https://twitter.com/AndysCycles/status/1478009081545777155 “They’re looking at the market and saying, ‘We’re at the top of the market.’” https://t.co/oK0x9e7sHO — Nomi Prins (@nomiprins) January 3, 2022 10-year yield starting to #rise again. Breaking 1.75% could mark the end of #bubble because it’s likely …
by Tom McClellan The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is still stuck at 0-0.25% as its target for the Fed Funds rate. This is the interest rate at which commercial banks lend each other money overnight to balance their deposits …
by confoundedinterest17 As Parks and Recreation’s Martin Housely said, “Weird, wacky stuff.” We now have the S&P 500 REAL earnings yield at -2.33%. REAL US average hourly wage growth is at -1.43% and the REAL 30-year mortgage rate is at -3.11%. The …
Howe Street, Released on 11/12/21 Bob Hoye is a trained geologist, successful resource investor and economic historian. Bob is the chief investment strategist for chartsandmarkets.com.
🇺🇸 Recession Is a recession on the horizon in the US, as the yield curve is flattening?👉 https://t.co/m11iBkSWhc h/t @GoldmanSachs #markets #yieldcurve #yields #yield#treasuries #bonds #bondmarket #recession #investing pic.twitter.com/BOEUUSKfTw — ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) November 4, 2021 #recession … China $USD #Liquidity …
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, the US economy has been greatly overstimulated by the Federal government (fiscal stimulus) and The Federal Reserve (monetary stimulus). This has caused inflation that we haven’t seen in a long time. How overstimulated in the economy? The REAL …
https://twitter.com/ZachMottl/status/1453841024757997574
by confoundedinterest17 I remember my academic colleague at The Ohio State University (now at Notre Dame), Paul Schultz saying “Why do you find fixed-income and the yield curve interesting?” I have always found the yield curve to be interesting … …
How can we justify a 10-year Treasury yield of 1.5% with inflation running well over 5%? The answer: producer inflation running even hotter. When producers can't pass inflation to consumers, deflation is coming. That's the bet Mr. Bond Market is …
h/t the_tourniquet
by confoundedinterest17 Treasury Secretary Janet “Go big or go home” Yellen is beating the hysteria drum by saying that the US faces a recession if Congress doesn’t increase the debt ceiling. Well, Janet, we are headed there anyway with GDP crashing …
by confoundedinterest17 The stock market mildly rebounded from yesterday’s mild correction, but a glaring problem remains: S&P 500 real earning yields are negative. With all the Federal government fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve monetary stimulus, we are seeing inflation and …
by confoundedinterest17 We are living in a negative real yield world. According to Deutsche Bank, 85% of the US High Yield market has a yield below the current rate of inflation. Its not only high-yield bonds that have negative REAL …
by confoundedinterest17 Well, I was expecting a little more guidance than Fed Chair Powell gave today at the J-Hole conference. In fact, failing to give a hard date on paring back the balance sheet and raising rates is downright dovish. A regrettable …
Wall St. For Main St., Released on 8/26/21 Here’s proof that covert yield curve control was already done by the Fed: The amount of 10 year and 20 year US Treasury bonds owned by the Fed has already increased from …
by confoundedinterest17 Not only is the 30-year mortgage rate in negative REAL territory, but the BofA BB High Yield Corporate Bond index REAL yield is negative too. What do you expect from Ma and Pa Mettle?
The Fed just imploded the cyclical bubble. Peak asset values means peak credit expansion. Peak reflation. pic.twitter.com/gMSsbidB8o — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 17, 2021 Good lord, the yield curve keeps going. pic.twitter.com/pirLzmWjQY — Brian Chappatta (@BChappatta) June 17, 2021 The Fed …
by confoundedinterest17 People get ready … mortgage rates will rise. The 10-year Treasury Note yield rose after The Fed announced that they aren’t going do much until 2023, but rates rose anyway. Rising home prices may get nuked by rising rates. Odd …
https://twitter.com/AndysCycles/status/1396286034942611458 Central banks balance sheet vs GDP. "Everything is fine, it is not as large as Japan's BOJ" is a false narrative. Considering three decades of stagnation and massive debt as "fine" is more than dangerous. pic.twitter.com/vTIVSR6cY5 — Daniel …
On Thursday the NY Fed issued a press release updating their bond buying policy for US Treasuries. Read the PR here: BRIEF-NY Fed Issues Statement Regarding Treasury Securities Operations https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/brief-ny-fed-issues-statement-regarding-treasury-securities-operations/ar-BB1gHM8z It seems the Fed will not be “modestly” reducing its …
by Michael Lebowitz Noah didn’t yield to FOMO, neither should you. “In the beginning, God created the heavens and the earth” reads the first sentence of the bible. Later in the book of Genesis, God created cycles. “Then Joseph said …
by confoundedinterest17 Today’s 3-month Treasury auction revealed an even lower 3M high yield rate than the previous auction. The 3M high yield was 0.015%. The ultra-low yield comes after The Fed increased their Treasury bill holdings in late 2019 and early …
https://www.statista.com/statistics/247565/monthly-average-10-year-us-treasury-note-yield-2012-2013/ Mainstream consensus is 1.9% (if not 2.2%!) My own belief is sub-zero in August or Q4. In 1990 a multi-year downtrend began, ending in 1993. Also 2000 – 2003 and 2007 – 2012. All three episodes had “pauses” in …
by confoundedinterest17 Treasury managed to sell $24 BILLION in 30 year Treasury bonds. The high yield rate was 2.32%. The result? The 30Y-2Y Treasury slope declined along the the 10Y-2Y slope. Good news for the already blistering housing market.
TradersChoice.net, Released on 4/8/21 Gregory Mannarino started his career working for the securities and trading arm of the now defunct Bear Stearns before the dot-com bubble. After realizing that working on Wall Street was not like the movies, he moved on …
S&P 500 real earnings yield continuing to fall; now at lowest since October 2008 pic.twitter.com/taLqAzLipH — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) April 6, 2021 Traders are unloading their massive short positions on UVXY pic.twitter.com/9sX9XTcnyb — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) April 6, 2021 If …
by mark000 https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/03/04/business/financial-markets/bonds-stock-japanese-economy-global-economy-u-s-treasuries/ [March 4] Japanese funds sold a record $34 billion of foreign bonds in the two weeks ended Feb. 26 as the nation’s fiscal year-end [on 31] March approaches — enough to cause reverberations in U.S. repurchase markets for 10-year …
