by confoundedinterest17 Here comes the night! The US economy us approaching recession as inflation soars and expected growth declines. Food and energy prices are soaring, hitting middle class and low-wage households like a hammer. While the headline inflation rate is 8.3% …
What did we learn today? 1. Fed days are invitations to squeeze the stupid short money, and 2. Equity market wont get really hurt until credit markets (high yield) demand more QE and Powell refuses. 3. Junk is currently closed …
look at the credit market.. the CCC yield spread is increasing rapidly ahead of the hike,, is not buying the bounce of the market pic.twitter.com/WvsFy9T3y8 — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) May 3, 2022 https://t.co/LtaE3BHOfA — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) May 3, 2022 https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1521131871601577986 people …
Oliver Stone has written some great and accurate posts about the staged war. And all the lefties are replying that it’s all rubbish from conspiracy nutters. Where have we heard that before? Oliver Stone outlines the objectives of Big War …
by __brodo__ The yield on the government bond has profound effects on the economy, feeding into home mortgage rates and borrowing costs for companies. The higher yield, which rises when bond prices fall, is tightening financial conditions after two years …
by laflammaster Everyone selling short(er)-term treasury notes. Bond market usually a leading indicator to equities market.
Once again, credit leads equities – high yield has been leaking (wider spreads, higher yields, risk off) for weeks while stocks marched higher – listen to credit. https://t.co/4cVbeIJFhj pic.twitter.com/EpUIJG7CU8 — Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) April 30, 2022 How #hedgefunds are positioned …
by Frank Shostak via Mises At the end of March this year the difference between the yield on the ten-year Treasury bond and the yield on the two-year Treasury bond fell to 0.010 percent from 1.582 percent at the end of March 2021. …
by allthenine https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_ibuy.htm Why would I not max this out? I understand that I-bonds exist to simply keep up with inflation and if the S&P moons I have missed out, but this kind of no risk return is not something …
Goldman Sachs compares this period to 1973 and then concludes stocks will likely RISE by 4%: "The 2s10s yield curve inverted in 1973, a comparable period of high inflation. The S&P 500 ultimately entered a bear market, falling 48%" Buyer …
by confoundedinterest17 Its official! I submitted my resignation from George Mason University effective June 1, 2022. I will miss teaching the students, past and present. But back to the US Treasury yield curve. It remains in reversion (meaning shorter-term Treasuries …
by laflammaster A market crash is imminent?
Bianco Research, Released on 3/31/22 (Recorded on 3/29/22) Today Jim will discuss the yield curve’s message and what that message is signaling to the market. · What do the different curves mean? · Why are they different? · Why inflation …
by confoundedinterest17 Alarm! There is a massive divergence between the collapsing US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve and the near-term forward spread. The near-term forward spread is the difference between the implied interest rate expected on a three-month Treasury bill six quarters …
From MishTalk: The long end of the yield curve rallied strongly on Tuesday with the middle of the curve pricing in more hikes by the Fed. More inversions signal a recession sooner rather than later. Yield Curve data from the …
https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1508881413042540545 The U.S. 2-year yield has exceeded the 10-year yield for the first time since 2019 An indicator of #recession Remember in 2020 we did get a recession from #covid https://t.co/M7vW3bTV3k — Susan Li (@SusanLiTV) March 29, 2022 When long-term …
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NwP2 Once again, it’s all about moves in the bond market … and, per yesterday’s tweet, related concerns about inflation, a late Fed, and the risk of a monetary policy error. Yields are higher, the 2s-10s curve is below 10 …
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, it is the much anticipated Fed Week! The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce it decision (probably the first rate hike under Biden of 25 basis points). This morning, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 11.1 …
Yield curve, one of the best indicators of #recession, is dropping rapidly. #Fed is going to have a problem. (They should have been hiking rates in 2020-2021 as they were flooding the #markets with #QE) pic.twitter.com/ksztY9p3Qo — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) …
by confoundedinterest17 WTI Crude Oil spot price was up 91% from the beginning of 2021 to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Now it is up 142% thanks to the invasion of Ukraine. Energy prices are still soaring with UK Natural Gas prices …
by confoundedinterest17 As someone who needs to move to Ohio, I would really appreciate it if mortgage rates would more closely follow the 10-year Treasury yield. But alas, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate just rose to 4.30% as the US Treasury 10-year …
by confoundedinterest17 The U.S. merchandise-trade deficit unexpectedly widened in January to an all-time high, reflecting a record value of imports and a drop in shipments overseas. The shortfall grew to $107.6 billion last month from $100.5 billion in December, according to Commerce Department …
by confoundedinterest17 We now know that Russia has invaded Ukraine and President Biden really threw the booklet at Putin in a speech today. Rather than removing Russia from the SWIFT banking system which would have really hurt Russia’s trade with Europe, he gave …
by confoundedinterest17 As US/Russian tensions grow over Ukraine, The Federal Reserve may be forced to postpone or reduce planned rate increases and balance sheet trimming. But in addition, we see US GDP slowing to near zero (1.285%) as the US …
After the Y2K date change the Fed realized they were behind the curve on easing so they accelerated their tightening process, deja vu of right now. We are in week 9 of sequential t-bond yield increase. The fastest pace since …
by confoundedinterest17 Call this “The running of the Bull(ard)s mouth.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he supports raising interest rates by a full percentage point by the start of July — including the first half-point hike since 2000 — …
🇺🇸 S&P 500 When yield spreads between A-rated and junk bonds widen, the S&P 500 tends to fall. It is therefore a leading indicator to watch closely👉 https://t.co/yIk7SZYp6p h/t @LanceRoberts #highyield #corporatebonds $spx#bonds #sp500 #spx #stocks #stockmarket #equities pic.twitter.com/1JLwmJzmZG — …
by confoundedinterest17 Its the same all over the WESTERN world as sovereign yields are starting to rapidly rise. (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is no longer ruling out an interest-rate hike this year, a pivot toward the tightening stance of global peers …
