The combination of a strong dollar, rising oil prices, and higher rates will weigh on US economic growth.
Source: @RealAlpineMacro pic.twitter.com/4xpbQo5XXG
— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) March 21, 2022
Bond Market Fireworks Highlight Recession Worries – Yahoot.co/DAIcQ5xa98
— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) March 21, 2022
Each recession over the past 3 decades has been accompanied by a spike in the divergence between the 2s10s Yield Curve and the 1 Year Forward Curve.
Currently, the 2s10s is at 19 bps while the 1Y Forward is inverted at -26 bps pic.twitter.com/8mXPkyfZsu
— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) March 21, 2022
Powell “If we conclude that it is appropriate to move more aggressively… we will do so"
Bostic "not wedded to moving only 25"
Barkin "very open to half-point moves"
Waller "the data is basically screaming at us to go 50"
Bullard "50… would have been a better decision"
— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) March 21, 2022
“I don’t see a reason to think the likelihood of a recession in the next year is elevated,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said. t.co/E2s3K719pz
— WSJ Central Banks (@WSJCentralBanks) March 21, 2022
Question for Powell: Are you thinking of raising the inflation target to 3% in order to improve the odds of a soft landing?
Powell: "No. That’s not something we’re looking at. No. No."
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) March 21, 2022
Meanwhile in Europe:
The ECB shouldn’t postpone increasing interest rates if inflation demands it, and may be able to start doing so in 2022, according to Governing Council member Joachim Nagel t.co/lXNg29uRMp
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) March 21, 2022