COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I have a friend in the management of the NFL. I sent him your piece on the decline of their industry and how the protests were really turning people off. Well, they have now banned protests during the game. They revised their policy mandating that players and team personnel present on the sideline “shall stand and show respect for the flag and the Anthem.”
Just letting you know.
REPLAY: Yes, the viewership for the Superbowl peaked with the Economic Confidence Model in 2015 and then it began a three-year decline so far into 2018 where it has reached a new 9-year low. This has been 3 years down since the major peak in 2015 qualifying as at least a reaction. One more year down and it will be a 10-year correction. Players have no right to protest when they are being paid for a job. No employee can say I am not coming to work because I want to protest Trump but you still have to pay me anyway. Personal time is personal. When you are on the clock, you are being paid for a specific job.
Forecasting the economy and political trends necessitates everything from weather to even sports. We have simply put everything into the computer. Sports also peak with the economy sometimes before it turns down hard or at the low depending upon the depth of the economic decline and the cause of the event – domestic v international.
Here is the attendance of the New York Yankees from 1913 (not TV viewership). We can see that attendance had two real spike highs with the first in 1920 after World War I ended and again right after the end of World War II. People are in a good mood. We also see that attendance declined during the Great Depression, bounced after the war, dropped into 1972 following the collapse of Bretton Woods in 1971, and then began a broader rally that lasted 36 years until 2008 under the floating rate monetary system. Baseball was also a leading indicator for the decline in viewership for the NFL. The decline post-2008 is mirroring the decline in liquidity in markets as well.
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