Big city trends tend to overstate national trends, so a 5% increase in murder in big cities tends to mean a 2-3% increase nationally. But this year we have no idea what will happen with the national figure.
— Jeff Asher (@Crimealytics) December 29, 2020
The largest national % increase ever reported (data since 1960) was 12.7% in 1968 and the largest # increase was 1,938 in 1990. A 15% increase this year (and I think it'll be much larger) would mean 2,400 more murders & be the worst one year increase in murder ever recorded.
— Jeff Asher (@Crimealytics) December 29, 2020
Finally, this is what the national murder rate trend looks like with a 20 or 25% increase in 2020.
Roughly where it was in the late 1990s, down 35-40% from where it was in 1993. pic.twitter.com/Rqbm7uZSup
— Jeff Asher (@Crimealytics) December 29, 2020
AC