A case study on effects of psychology in trading

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There is no doubt that emotions and behavioral factors play a big part in defining good traders. Stress, mood and other psychological factors we discussed in earlier artcles play a significant role in how most traders execute their trading.  Traders who enjoy stable emotions make good traders in general.  A research done by The University … Read more

Mapping International Trade: Who Are the Biggest Exporters?

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by howmuch Exports are a major aspect of international trade. Countries around the world can bolster their economies by selling their resources and consumer goods to other nations around the world. Developing and developed countries both export products around the globe. But which countries lead the global economy in exports? We constructed a helpful visualization … Read more

Bearish Divergences Similar To 2000 & 2007 In Play Again!

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by Kimble Charting Does history at important junctures ever repeat itself exactly? Nope Do look-alike patterns take place at important price points? Yup This chart looks at the S&P 500 over the past 20-years. In 2000 and 2007 bearish momentum divergences took place months ahead of the actual peak in stocks. Currently, momentum has created a bearish divergence … Read more

Why The Next ECB Stimulus Plan Will Also Fail

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by Daniel Lacalle In June 2014, I wrote an article called “Draghi’s Plan does not fix Europe.” In that article, I explained that the structural challenges of the eurozone — high government spending, excessive tax wedge, lack of technology leadership and demographics — were not going to be solved by a round of quantitative easing. … Read more

Gold Price Predictions from Wall Street – $2,000 (or higher) as Early as Next Year

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by Jeff Clark With gold prices having broken out recently, many banks and analysts have released updated price projections. And in every case I’ve seen, those predictions are higher. Yes, banks and brokerage houses are not the best source for analysis of the precious metals market—they’re heavily biased toward stocks, and their track record with gold … Read more

Correlation between unemployment and the stock market in the past -25 years

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by AestheticFC https://i.imgur.com/eElhmNU.jpg -Red line is Civilian Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) -Blue line is SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) This was generated by merging two charts together to see their interlaced behavior. X-axis is exactly the same for both (time) and Y-axis is labeled on the far left for each. UNRATE first column, SPY second column (both using log … Read more

Mortgage Defaults Rise First Time Since Financial Crisis

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via mishtalk: Defaults are up for the first time since the great financial crisis. But as rates fall, a refi surge will help millions. The Black Knight Mortgage Monitor shows the first annual rise in defaults since the crisis. First Lien Defaults by Quarter An estimated 243K borrowers defaulted on first lien mortgages in Q2 2019 While the … Read more

Just Got Laid Off – I’ve Got the Best Bosses Ever, but They See the Economy Tanking in Short Order

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A Slow Motion Collapse Testimony: I work for a donor management software company who’ve watched the charitable organizations we serve falling off in numbers like they’ve never experienced before. They simply can’t afford those of us they’ve decided to let go, at this point. The charities have been facing much reduced donations of late and … Read more

World’s top wealth manager urges clients to sell stocks

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https://www.ft.com/content/98318f9a-c808-11e9-a1f4-3669401ba76f ​ The world’s largest wealth manager has turned bearish on stocks, fearing that the latest escalation of the trade fracas between the US and China poses a heightened threat to global markets. UBS Wealth Management, which oversees $2.5tn for rich clients, has trimmed its core equity recommendation to an “underweight” position for the first … Read more

My China theory / DD. The trade war is going to hit it’s peak in January – May 2020. Details inside

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by IS_JOKE_COMRADE Background: I spent a year in Beijing, speak Chinese, lived with a Chinese family for several months, and have an advanced degree in Chinese Studies from a top-3 international affairs institution in the U.S., and have followed China related news closely for the past 8 years. I have called China ‘right’ to friends … Read more