by Michael Snyder If the bond market is correct, the U.S. economy is definitely heading into a recession. Over the past 50 years, there have been six previous occasions when the yield on three-month Treasury bonds has risen above the …
by LuxGang “1989: the rate was at nearly 10% when the yield inverted in March 1989. Between that time and March 1991, the rate dropped to approximately 6% and continued to drop to approximately 3% where it stayed until …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMk8hH78H4M Here comes the Recession AC
via mishtalk: Yields dropped across the board today as the Fed said it would be patient. A “Dot Plot” shows no hikes expected in 2019. The lead chart shows interest levels today vs those on December 18, the last meeting in …
The spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury notes has fallen below 10 basis points for the first time since 2007. An inverted yield curve, where short-term yields are higher than their longer-term counterparts, is considered a reliable recession signal. The …
by northmantrader Let’s be very clear what yesterday’s full frontal capitulation by the Fed means: It’s coming. The next recession that is. It’s just a matter of the how and the when. Now mind you the Fed will never, ever overtly …
Shiller: Greater Than Average Chance of Recession in the Next 18 Months Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller: Greater than average chance of recession in next 18 months from CNBC. Nobel Prize economist Robert Shiller says that the long expansion in …
by Troy Today’s biggest news was that the Fed predicts no more rate hikes this year. Given that we are extremely late in this economic expansion cycle, this probably means that the Fed is also done hiking rates for this …
In a recent poll, roughly 70% of Americans expressed satisfaction with the current state of the economy. And, in general, there’s a lot to be pleased about. The markets have performed well over the past year and many investors are …
by Michael Snyder “Slowing international macroeconomic conditions” is just a fancy way to say that the global economy is in big trouble. For months, I have been warning that economic conditions are deteriorating, and we just keep getting more confirmation that we …
by Martin Armstrong QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, it is becoming very obvious that we are headed into a recession here in Europe. I have never felt how ominous things seem as they do right now. Will you be covering Scandinavia at the WEC …
by Mac Slavo of SHTFplan The UCLA Anderson Forecast announced Wednesday that the United States economy is at a “very real risk” of falling into a recession in the year 2020. “A year ago we were looking forward to a synchronized global expansion; today …
Legendary contrarian investor Dr. Marc Faber warns, “When I started to work in 1970 on Wall Street, the stock market capitalization of the U.S. as a percentage of GDP . . . was between 25% and 30%. Now, the stock …
https://twitter.com/anilvohra69/status/1107069993059913728 U.S. corporate leaders are getting worried about a recession Watch out below. Top U.S. business leaders are “bracing for a recession,” and many are already starting to slash costs to prepare their companies for a downturn ahead. So says the …
by confoundedinterest European bond volatility (according to the Merrill Lynch 3-month EUR option volatility estimate) has plunged to the lowest level on record. A similar chart for the US bond market is the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate for 3-months …
Josh Sigurdson talks with author and economic analyst John Sneisen about the continuing decline of the Canadian housing markets as banks like BMO warn that this type of decline normally leads to a recession and that this recession will be …
from Financial Survival Network Danielle Park talks about how Canada’s government is in crisis. The former attorney-general has blown the whistle on corruption and abuse of power. Of course it’s all in the name of protecting jobs for Canadians. But that tale …
– ECB has just loosened monetary policy. What if that isn’t enough? – ECB says the risks to Europe’s economies lean to the downside – Trade wars could get worse and political turbulence could increase – Brexit, could deliver an especially …
by Adam Taggart Love it or hate it, the potency of the Trump Administration is on the wane, soon to be stuck in the mire of the Swamp it has deepend instead of drained, while the economy falls into one …
by Jesse Colombo As the current economic cycle becomes increasingly long-in-the-tooth and macroeconomic and earnings data deteriorate, it is time to start thinking about the next recession. In particular, I wanted to point out that the U.S. federal debt burden has never …
by Michael Snyder We now have official confirmation that the U.S. economy has dramatically slowed down. In recent days I have shared a whole bunch of numbers with my readers that clearly demonstrate that a new economic downturn has begun. And even …
A global recession without the USA? That's what I'm hearing. Reminds me of the clowns who were talking about decoupling back in 2008. No such thing. Sorry to be the one to tell you. — David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) March 4, …
By John Mauldin I trust Dave Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. He’s been a perpetual speaker at my SIC conference for at least 10 years. Dave is screaming recession every chance he gets, but he is not a perma-bear by any …
Talk Digital Network, Released on 2/27/19 Will US trade threats against China and Europe work out? Mike “Mish” Shedlock a registered investment advisor, representative for Sitka Pacific Capital Management and he operates one of the most popular websites about the …
Bear market for stocks already underway, recession coming. Great report by @bkollmeyer via @MarketWatchhttps://t.co/UmTQkI7fJX pic.twitter.com/39CLB9VR5X — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) February 27, 2019 The last few days we have witnessed tons of $VIX call buying taking advantage of mispriced $VVIX. …
by Mac Slavo of SHTFplan The unemployment rate has been a perfect forecaster of a recession in the past 70 years, and it appears to be edging closer to triggering that signal. “It’s never been wrong. It’s something to watch,” said Joseph Lavorgna, chief …
via Bloomberg: The renewed rally in U.S. equities has left volatility markets showing little concern that the good times will end any time soon. Recession models beg to differ. Wells Fargo’s model — which draws on the spread between three-month …
Look at the indicators piling up. Unlike in 2007, nobody believes it this time. Back in 2007 and in 2000, there were a few people saying it time to slow things down, they’re too heated. Today, nearly everyone is begging …
By David Stockman Ooops! Q4 GDP Growth Outlook Slumps To 1.4% New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods unexpectedly fell in December amid declining demand for machinery and primary metals, pointing to a sustained slowdown in business spending on equipment …
by Lance Roberts Yesterday, Michael Lebowitz wrote an interesting piece discussing the “yield curve” and the message it is sending. To wit: “Recently, Wall Street and the Financial Media have brought much attention to the flattening and possible inversion of the …