Tech Founders Predict the Next Wave of Startup Growth

by visualcapitalist

Tech Founders Predict the Next Wave of Startup Growth

Today’s tech founders have unique insights into the evolving arena of innovation and are keenly aware of why some companies succeed more than others. Many have worked with multiple startups and have gone on to invest in successful tech unicorns.

This week’s chart comes from First Round’s State of Startups 2018 survey, in which 529 founders shared their predictions on the tech startups best poised for growth and spin-off success.

Tech Startup Valuations

Stripe, the payments startup darling, has already grew from $1.8 billion in valuation in 2013 to over $22 billion today. According to the tech founders surveyed, 19.0% see Stripe continuing on this path in the years to come.

Q: Which U.S.-based tech startup’s value will increase the most in the next 10 years?

Rank Startup % of respondents
#1 Stripe 19.0%
#2 SpaceX 12.7%
#3 Coinbase 12.1%
#4 Slack 11.3%
#5 Airbnb 9.8%
#6 Palantir 6.8%
#7 WeWork 6.3%
#8 Uber 5.3%
#9 Lyft 4.7%
#10 Pinterest 1.6%
Other 10.3%

It’s worth noting that this list includes some startups that have already IPO’d since the survey was released in December 2018.

In fact, in the first half of 2019, we’ve already seen Pinterest, Lyft, Uber, and Slack hit the market. Slack’s public offering was the most notable, as they chose to go the direct listing route. The share price still jumped 48.5% less than 24 hours after they went public.

The Next PayPal Mafia?

The PayPal Mafia is a legendary group of billionaire investor-entrepreneurs that have had far-reaching influence in the tech world since they parted ways with PayPal.

Not only did members of this group go on to start many major unicorns, including YouTube, SpaceX, LinkedIn, and Palantir, but some members have invested in over 100 startups each. This “giving back” has had a monumental impact on the Silicon Valley ecosystem, planting the seeds that would emerge as many of today’s star companies.

Q: Which U.S.-based company is most likely to spin out the next generation of notable founders over the next five years?

Rank Startup % of respondents
#1 Uber 22.5%
#2 Slack 15.7%
#3 Stripe 15.2%
#4 Airbnb 13.9%
#5 Coinbase 10.6%
#6 Palantir 9.1%
#7 SpaceX 4.2%
#8 Lyft 1.8%
#9 WeWork 1.8%
#10 Amazon 1.1%
Other 4.2%

Current tech founders predict that the companies listed in this survey will be perfect launching points for many of the world’s future tech founders.

Of all U.S.-based tech startups, Uber is predicted to be a top contender for producing the next generation of startup talent by 2023.

Other Survey Findings

Interestingly, over 60% of founders believe that the world is in a technology bubble, with evenly split reviews on whether it’s either nowhere close or very close to popping.

While 57% of founders believe the U.S. will continue to dominate the tech world, 39% predict China’s growth will become the world’s hub for tech innovation by 2028.

Only time will tell, as tensions between the U.S. and China continue to heat up, and good tech talent becomes increasingly more competitive to recruit as startups continue to grow.

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