by kelvinator I do investment management and here is my personal read on what’s happening with this selloff: I agree with Dave Fairtex that, so far, the signs that this is ‘the big one’ like junk bond spread blow-outs haven’t shown …
via mishtalk: Just in the nick of time not: Fair Isaac is launching a new type of credit score that will give millions more credit. Just as the economy is peaking, consumers with a low FICO could get a higher “UltraFICO“, …
via knowledgeleaderscapital: Today, economy watchers were treated to more of the same from the housing market. That is, more weak numbers suggesting we may have seen the peak in housing activity for the cycle. This fits with our earlier analysis that higher lending …
by lxvresearch “Everything turns in circles and spirals with the cosmic heart until infinity. Everything has a vibration that spirals inward or outward — and everything turns together in the same direction at the same time. This vibration keeps going: …
The Volatility Index has more than doubled over the past 6 trading days, the 9th largest 6-day spike in history. $VIX pic.twitter.com/rqUuFzDqXz — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 12, 2018 #SPX and #NYSE technical, cycle and measured downside targets have not …
Bounced off the cycle posted earlier today on weekly $spx chart…next test likely breaks it…but this is an important price level as well as having a lot few x-ticks in the area pic.twitter.com/CigWvv1EmQ — mcm-ct.com (@mcm_ct) October 8, 2018 Advance/Decline …
by Dana Lyons Stocks are entering the best stretch of the 4-year Presidential cycle, historically speaking. When it comes to investment decision-making inputs, seasonality is typically pretty low on the hierarchy for us. However, as we have written on occasion in the …
by CybergothiChe The idea of charity shops (thrift stores or op shops, if you will) is that people will buy donated second hand products and the money is sent to the needy poor. But here’s the rub, by and large …
Excellent interview. It pays to hedge against current trends. Having a strattle strategy helps in the transition, one way or another. Then when you’re sure of the momentum in a particular direction, scale into that direction. I think gold & …
by FS Ray Dalio while giving a speech at the 10th anniversary celebration of charity Grameen America. Metropolitan Museum of Art, September 23 2017 We often discuss the aging business cycle and our anticipation of economic troubles in the 2019 …
by Dana Lyons September of the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle is historically the weakest month of the 4-year cycle. Since working off its early year correction, the U.S. stock market has been on one of those inexorable runs that …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2Le7spCPcg We have a bona fide Wall Street legend on the podcast today – Marty Fridson, referred to as the “Dean of High Yield” because of his unique knowledge of toxic loans to unworthy companies and their inevitable consequences as …
Credit card rates are now higher than they were at the peak of the last cycle: pic.twitter.com/54RBTFJHGh — Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) August 7, 2018 I wonder what this graph would look like if personal loans and line of credit were …
via Ponzi World This cycle can be measured in printed money, wasted time, depleted capital, and non-stop bullshit. This is a level ’11’ con job – one clown size bigger than last time… No one was happier when Trump got …
Do you think it’s ok to have lots of credit card debt? I ask this because many people believe that this is a great way to consume more and believe that hyperinflation will eventually pay for everything. People have …
by stockboardasset While President Trump pedals the notion that the economy is the “greatest economy in HISTORY,” WalletHub noticed a considerable amount of Americans repaid $40.3 billion in credit card debt during the first quarter of 2018 — the second-largest quarterly …
Signs that we’re late cycle -Mature Fed hiking cycle -Commodity rally -Tech/Financials leading -Flatter yield curve -Tight labor market -Rising inflation -Peaking PMI -Surging consumer/NFIB confidence -Tight credit spreads/low VIX -High corporate leverage -Low vacancy https://twitter.com/HayekAndKeynes/status/1006673494275448834 Just comparing it to …
by Michael Snyder Since 1913, the Federal Reserve has engaged in 18 distinct interest rate hiking campaigns, and in every single one of those instances the end result was a large stock market decline, a recession, or both. Now we are …
Incredible when you see all these indicators and it still keeps going up and up. https://twitter.com/StockBoardAsset/status/1003796795770585089 America quit saving. Households are getting squeeze by higher gas prices, recently pushing the savings rate below 3% pic.twitter.com/i1pWna5uSb — The Long View (@HayekAndKeynes) …
by John Rubino Back in the late 1990s I interviewed for an analyst job with a value-oriented money manager. My main impression of our talk was how sad the guy was. The tech bubble was in full swing, any little …
by John Rubino The early stages of a housing bubble are fun for pretty much everyone. Homeowners see their equity start to rise and feel smart for having bought, home seekers have to pay up, but not too much, and …
by stockboardasset “Given rich valuations and deteriorating internals, downside risks are increasing. But finger-waving about the risks of Fed tightening or QT, after the jackweeds at the Fed encouraged THIS, imagines one can avoid the inevitable consequences of a bubble that …
by Tom McClellan If this were a “normal” 2nd year of a presidential term, we would now be in a corrective period due to last until just before the mid-term elections. But as many in the press have noted, we do …
by John Rubino After an epic (generation-spanning at the long end) decline in interest rates, the trend has finally reversed. Which means, if history is still a reliable guide, there’s a number that ends this cycle and ushers in the …
by mauldineconomics In 1999, I began saying the tech bubble would eventually spark a recession. Timing was unclear because stock bubbles can blow way later than we can imagine. Then the yield curve inverted, and I said recession was certain. I …
via Steven Hansen Summary The Consumer Price Index released this week shows core inflation running at 2.1% with the CPI-U at 2.5%. The GDP price index showed inflation at 2.8%. As inflation now is above the Fed target of 2.0% – …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRirZZEs-fI Today’s Guest: Charles Hugh Smith Websites: Of Two Minds http://www.oftwominds.com
via byMike Mish ShedlockSaxo Bank provides an ominous economic outlook in its second quarter report. What follows below are snips from a 35-page report by Saxo Bank. I condensed the report for readability. Any emphasis in italics is mine. Until the …
Source: Jack Chan for Streetwise Reports (4/17/18) Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the energy sector. $OSX is on a major sell signal. Our proprietary cycle indicator is up. OIH is on a buy signal. XLE is on a buy …
by FS According to the Game Plan for Late-Cycle Investing, as the economy moves towards its latter stages, commodities tend to outperform equities and other asset classes. Frank Barbera—market technician, portfolio manager, and editor of the Gold Stock Technician newsletter—believes we’re …