The real estate market has been supported by one very important factor: Interest rates. They are SLOWLY climbing. Just a bit more and you will hear “TIMBERRRRRR” as it comes crashing down.

Case Shiller cities in November.jpg (890×629) https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/Case%20Shiller%20cities%20in%20November.jpg https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/maven-user-photos/mishtalk/economics/zmfATcSa4EegwR7v_znq6Q/vclF4JZbsEi5-4w6F9RDfw (1324×827) https://imageproxy.themaven.net/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fmaven-user-photos%2Fmishtalk%2Feconomics%2FzmfATcSa4EegwR7v_znq6Q%2FvclF4JZbsEi5-4w6F9RDfw?w=1324&q=75&h=827&auto=format&fit=crop mc180201c.png (781×718) https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/comment/mc180201c.png Trump $1.7 trillion infrastructure plan in State of the Union speech – Business Insider http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-infrastructure-plan-in-state-of-the-union-speech-text-2018-1

Rising Interest Payments

by NorthmanTrader Is anyone paying attention? I don’t know, but the cost of carrying debt has been rising and it’s already showing measurable impacts despite the Fed Funds rate still being very low. My concern of course is that the global …

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Citi labels 2s/5s US yield spread as the best interest rate chart in the world. Bear flattening signaled Savings and Loan Crisis in the late 1980s, the Dot-Com crash in the early 2000s and the GFC in 2007.

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/933449988276916224 TROUBLE? What is the predictive power of the yield curve? Shape of the yield curve, advanced by 15 mths, has a decent fit w/US GDP growth. But yield curve inversions over-predict recessions. https://t.co/1mo5QwepsZ pic.twitter.com/Ysd5YCKe4F — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) November …

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Central banks are damned if they raise interest rates and damned if they don't, largely because their policies have resulted in both risk-taking (i.e. the creation of asset bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate) and excess levels of debt.

Here’s a summary from the report which succinctly explains the potential debt crisis and how the world’s central banks have painted themselves into a “monetary policy corner”: “Otherwise, over long horizons, failing to constrain financial booms but easing aggressively and …

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